Polymarket · Tech & ScienceClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI o3-mini model has a higher arena score than all DeepSeek models on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) at any point by February 28, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All OpenAI o3-mini models will count (i.e. o3-mini and o3-mini-high both count). If any of them is higher than DeepSeek it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Note that the arena score must be higher - if it ties with the best DeepSeek arena score it will not count. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.