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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40M | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| $750M | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $1.5B | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $3B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $5B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $10B | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $500M | 0% | −3 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $300M | 0% | +2 pts | +3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $100M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $80M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 224d | Flancho2 fills | $40M | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,683 | +$9 +0.1% | 2 |
| 224d |  niitoxyz | $80M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 224d | niitoxyz | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 224d |  3seater2 fills | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,181 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 225d | newer | $100M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,783 | +$11 +0.6% | 2 |
| 225d | Wjy555 | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,335 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 225d |  E61hi | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,160 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 225d | Voron | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,867 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 225d | Quartz | $1.5B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,256 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 225d | Hpp38 fills | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $16,816 | +$184 +1.1% | 2 |
| 225d |  ke1pie | $1.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 225d | ke1pie | $3B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,287 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 225d |  bau7 | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,170 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 225d | HE.NAN.SHENG.KAI.FENG.SHI.TONG.XU.XIAN | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,739 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 225d | uprightuser | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,683 | +$17 +0.3% | 2 |
| 225d | 3seater | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 225d | stepakssss | $750M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,760 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 225d | west77 | $300M | SellNo100¢ | $2,386 | −$12 −0.5% | — |
| 225d | h00neybal | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 225d | Hpp3 | $750M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 225d | Hpp32 fills | $300M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,912 | +$88 +2.2% | 2 |
| 225d | 1881aa | $300M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,754 | −$23 −0.6% | — |
| 225d | cripes3 | $750M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,374 | +$4 +0.3% | 2 |
| 225d | iiiijiijjijiijiiii | $300M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,587 | −$13 −0.8% | — |
| 225d |  YeaYeaYeaYeaYeaYea | $300M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,688 | +$19 +0.7% | 2 |
| 225d | Flancho | $300M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,588 | +$46 +1.0% | 2 |
| 225d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | $300M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,251 | −$16 −1.3% | — |
| 225d | newer2 fills | $300M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $39,600 | +$400 +1.0% | 2 |
| 225d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | $300M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,253 | +$14 +1.1% | 2 |
| 225d | trader9583 | $750M | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,260 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 225d | predictrader | $750M | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,993 | +$7 +0.1% | 2 |
| 225d | OoopsBankrupt | $1.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,144 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 225d |  Nik- | $1.5B | SellNo>99¢ | $5,988 | −$12 −0.2% | — |
| 225d | Polygonooooor2 fills | $750M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,568 | +$41 +0.6% | 2 |
| 225d | aucharbonpourelle | $1.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,499 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 226d | crassus01 | $750M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,659 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 226d | 1881aa | $300M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | +$14 +1.3% | 2 |
| 226d | self111 | $300M | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | −$21 −1.9% | — |
| 226d |  LeonardoWeb32 fills | $300M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,009 | +$95 +3.1% | 2 |
| 226d |  donaldduck | $3B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,388 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 226d |  ithinkthisisloser | $300M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,183 | +$14 +1.2% | 2 |
| 226d |  snehal83 | $1.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,399 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 226d | KDB | $300M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $20,028 | +$238 +1.2% | 2 |
| 226d | RRR1234 | $1.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,089 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 226d | jiaf | $300M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,096 | +$26 +2.4% | 2 |
| 226d | werfrens | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,061 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 226d | newer | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,520 | +$9 +0.2% | 2 |
| 226d | ningquewulan123 | $300M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,900 | +$100 +2.0% | 2 |
| 226d | lexaman.eth | $300M | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,111 | +$88 +4.2% | 2 |
| 226d | toe3 | $300M | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,023 | +$54 +5.3% | 2 |
| 226d | west77 | $300M | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,604 | +$67 +4.2% | 2 |
| 226d | rusgreat | $300M | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,161 | +$114 +5.3% | 2 |
| 226d | informedtrader2 fills | $300M | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,085 | −$157 −7.5% | — |
| 226d |  moksel | $10B | SellNo>99¢ | $5,157 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 226d | Nik-2 fills | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,295 | +$62 +1.5% | 2 |
| 226d | Risto | $500M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,292 | +$21 +1.6% | 2 |
| 226d | ningquewulan123 | $500M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,968 | +$32 +1.6% | 2 |
| 226d |  guru69 | $300M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $49,078 | +$1,317 +2.7% | 2 |
| 226d | Risto | $300M | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $8,634 | +$360 +4.2% | 2 |
| 226d |  gghtx | $300M | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $17,688 | +$1,022 +5.8% | 2 |
bjprolo120 shares
wendypeekaboo100 shares
cyfra30 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Paradex's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Paradex (https://x.com/paradex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $40M means the market gives it about 100%.