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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) | 100% | +62 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Tim Vieira (IND) | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Joana Amaral Dias (ADN) | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| André Pestana (IND) | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| André Ventura (CH) | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Orlando Cruz (IND) | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Aristides Teixeira (IND) | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Manuela Magno (IND) | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND) | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| António José Seguro (IND) | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Vitorino Silva (IND) | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ângela Maryah (IND) | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| António Filipe (PCP) | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Raul Perestrello (IND) | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| José Cardoso (PLS) | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD) | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jorge Pinto | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL) | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Rui Moreira (IND) | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Paulo Portas (CDS) | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Catarina Martins (BE) | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Manuel João Vieira | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Humberto Correia | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Candidate E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate P | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate Q | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate R | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate S | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate U | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate V | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate W | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate X | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate Y | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate Z | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 271d | AZwater | Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 271d |  ggmggn | Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | +$27 +2.3% | 10 |
| 271d | GustavoDpp | Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,106 | −$94 −8.5% | — |
| 271d |  nicoco89 | Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) | BuyYes60¢ → 0¢ | $1,027 | −$1,027 −100% | 10 |
| 271d |  sciuboi | Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $3,753 | −$3,753 −100% | 10 |
| 271d |  LEONIDOVITCH19832 fills | Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) | BuyYes79¢ → 0¢ | $2,674 | −$2,674 −100% | 10 |
| 271d |  flow-trader-at-optiver | João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL) | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,158 | +$3 +0.3% | 10 |
| 271d |  DonaldinhoTrumpito | Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,947 | +$202 +1.3% | 10 |
| 271d |  Flipadelphia | João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL) | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,375 | −$125 −9.1% | — |
| 272d | hollyber | João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL) | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,213 | +$99 +3.1% | 10 |
| 272d | sciuboi | Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) | BuyYes65¢ → 0¢ | $1,247 | −$1,247 −100% | 10 |
| 274d |  scottilicious | António José Seguro (IND) | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $77,485 | +$1,606 +2.1% | 10 |
| 275d | Snoorrason | Orlando Cruz (IND) | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,656 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 275d | Snoorrason | Rui Moreira (IND) | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,447 | +$35 +1.0% | 10 |
| 275d | Snoorrason | Paulo Portas (CDS) | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,395 | +$36 +1.1% | 10 |
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that receives the fourth-highest number of valid votes in the first round of this election. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the candidate whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the first round of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) means the market gives it about 100%.