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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 30, 2026 | 0% | +2 pts | +1 pts | — · 4¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 289d | FEDchair | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,604 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 297d |  VegemiteLover | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,008 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 331d | srtrssrt423512 | December 31, 2025 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,746 | −$18 −1.0% | — |
| 331d | ytjdhsreg3452 | December 31, 2025 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,926 | −$19 −1.0% | — |
| 331d | srtrssrt423512 | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,744 | +$19 +1.1% | 4 |
| 331d | ytjdhsreg3452 | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,924 | +$21 +1.1% | 4 |
| 331d | srthsger4362 | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,844 | +$22 +1.2% | 4 |
| 331d | trsuyhsrgse4521 | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,820 | +$22 +1.2% | 4 |
| 343d | BFivePol | December 31, 2025 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,385 | +$30 +1.2% | 4 |
| 343d | BFivePol | June 30, 2026 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,186 | +$161 +3.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for December 31, 2025 means the market gives it about 0%.