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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | 100% | +40 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Launch before February? | 100% | +2 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Super Heavy explodes? | 0% | −28 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Launch by Jan 10? | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Reaches space? | 100% | +5 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Trump attends launch? | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Successful splash down? | 0% | −69 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Super Heavy survives re-entry? | 100% | +6 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Launch by Jan 15? | 0% | −65 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 639d | QJYH | Trump attends launch? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,078 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 639d | FoldingNuts2722 fills | Super Heavy survives re-entry? | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,083 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 639d | hulu | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,806 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 639d |  iamhungry | Reaches space? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,229 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 639d |  noreasapa | Super Heavy survives re-entry? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,276 | +$22 +0.5% | 4 |
| 639d | FoldingNuts272 | Trump attends launch? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,375 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 639d |  Burnmoneyuser2 fills | Super Heavy explodes? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,496 | +$24 +0.7% | 4 |
| 639d | Burnmoneyuser2 fills | Launch before February? | SellYes>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 639d |  AgricultureSecretary3 fills | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,526 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 639d |  LlamaEnjoyer | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,927 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 639d |  Dropper2 fills | Successful splash down? | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,073 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 639d | Dropper2 fills | Super Heavy explodes? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,365 | +$62 +1.4% | 4 |
| 639d | Elfandi | Reaches space? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,496 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 639d | AlexPro | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,454 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 639d | surf | Successful splash down? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,744 | +$28 +1.0% | 4 |
| 639d |  lranon | Launch before February? | SellYes>99¢ | $5,574 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 639d | AgricultureSecretary | Reaches space? | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,164 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 639d | noreasapa2 fills | Super Heavy explodes? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,134 | +$32 +1.0% | 4 |
| 639d | lranon2 fills | Reaches space? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,934 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 639d |  ehhhemmm | Reaches space? | SellYes>99¢ | $3,831 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 639d | noreasapa | Successful splash down? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,079 | +$21 +1.0% | 4 |
| 639d | lranon | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,177 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 639d |  vocifer2 fills | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,650 | +$13 +0.1% | 4 |
| 639d |  tip-565 | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,432 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 639d | Mhodlr | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,573 | −$14 −0.9% | — |
| 639d | ehhhemmm | Launch before February? | SellYes>99¢ | $3,827 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 639d | Dropper | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $8,103 | +$242 +3.0% | 4 |
| 639d | noreasapa | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $8,946 | +$373 +4.2% | 4 |
| 639d |  8=====D | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$871 +44% | 4 |
| 639d |  pirateshere | Trump attends launch? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,626 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 639d | FoldingNuts2722 fills | Launch before February? | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,159 | +$30 +0.2% | 20 |
| 639d | longtern | Trump attends launch? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,704 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 639d | vocifer | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | SellNo47¢ → 0¢ | $2,350 | +$2,350 +100% | — |
| 639d | vocifer | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyNo35¢ → 0¢ | $2,085 | −$2,085 −100% | 6 |
| 639d | Drdj12 | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $5,647 | +$3,041 +54% | 4 |
| 639d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly3 fills | Launch before February? | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,134 | +$50 +0.5% | 20 |
| 639d | vocifer | Super Heavy explodes? | BuyYes32¢ → 0¢ | $1,600 | −$1,600 −100% | 6 |
| 639d |  RewardsPeasant | Super Heavy explodes? | BuyYes30¢ → 0¢ | $1,063 | −$1,063 −100% | 4 |
| 639d | RewardsPeasant | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,528 | +$936 +61% | 4 |
| 639d | Jack51e72 | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,922 | +$1,178 +61% | 4 |
| 639d | Jack51e722 fills | Launch before February? | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,980 | −$105 −3.5% | — |
| 639d | iamgone | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,051 | −$714 −68% | — |
| 639d |  d1k21 | Launch before February? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 639d |  Infringe | Launch before February? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,236 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 639d | Burnmoneyuser2 fills | Launch before February? | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,619 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 639d |  losingmoneyxd | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,805 | +$972 +54% | 4 |
| 639d | PGvWyy1cDV | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,977 | +$1,023 +52% | 4 |
| 639d |  FUNDI | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | SellNo38¢ → 0¢ | $1,320 | +$1,320 +100% | — |
| 639d | polywanta2 fills | Launch before February? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,333 | +$73 +1.4% | 20 |
| 639d | lranon | Launch before February? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,496 | +$84 +1.5% | 20 |
| 640d |  Prot07ype | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyYes61¢ → 100¢ | $1,215 | +$777 +64% | 4 |
| 640d | Nahhhhhh | Trump attends launch? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,500 | +$59 +1.7% | 20 |
| 640d |  Slowroasted2 fills | Launch by Jan 15? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,791 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 640d |  KimJonEn2 fills | Trump attends launch? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,374 | +$125 +3.7% | 21 |
| 640d | tf2 | Launch by Jan 15? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,869 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 640d | tf2 | Launch by Jan 15? | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,776 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 640d | AgricultureSecretary | Launch by Jan 15? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,930 | +$50 +1.0% | 20 |
| 640d |  Euan | Launch by Jan 15? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,970 | +$30 +1.0% | 20 |
| 640d |  branson69 | Launch before February? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,211 | +$15 +1.2% | 20 |
| 640d |  DTZ | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | SellYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,452 | −$989 −68% | — |
This is a market on predicting the outcomes and milestones of SpaceX's Flight Test 7.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? means the market gives it about 100%.
