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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 84% | — | +16 pts | 82¢ · 86¢ (4¢) | — | in 440d |
| $300M | 41% | — | +17 pts | 28¢ · 54¢ (26¢) | — | in 440d |
| $500M | 31% | +4 pts | +9 pts | 26¢ · 35¢ (9¢) | $90 | in 440d |
| $200M | 55% | — | +14 pts | 20¢ · 90¢ (70¢) | — | in 440d |
| $100M | 76% | +17 pts | +14 pts | 66¢ · 85¢ (19¢) | $30 | in 440d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59d |  EleveResearch | $50M | SellYes60¢ → 84¢ | $1,599 | −$635 −40% | — |
| 222d |  BOOSTJUICE | $100M | SellNo31¢ → 25¢ | $1,550 | +$325 +21% | — |
| 222d | BOOSTJUICE | $100M | BuyNo87¢ → 25¢ | $4,322 | −$3,105 −72% | 4 |
| 222d | AmpleCrown | $50M | SellNo50¢ → 16¢ | $17,719 | +$12,049 +68% | — |
| 222d | AmpleCrown | $50M | BuyNo50¢ → 16¢ | $17,438 | −$11,857 −68% | 2 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 84¢ for $50M means the market gives it about 84%.