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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 0% | −5 pts | −67 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 24 | 0% | −39 pts | −79 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 20 | 0% | −17 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 320d | thesaviour2021 | November 30 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,713 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 320d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | November 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,797 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 320d | luckboxx | November 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,229 | −$9 −0.7% | — |
| 321d | Boring-Bronco | November 30 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,245 | +$79 +6.4% | 21 |
| 321d |  Trashbag | November 30 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$203 +6.8% | 20 |
| 323d | Trick | November 30 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$179 +12% | 22 |
| 325d | ballboy95 | November 30 | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,252 | +$537 +43% | 22 |
| 325d | Torito | November 30 | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,365 | +$635 +47% | 22 |
| 326d |  LoRolla | November 30 | BuyNo52¢ → 100¢ | $1,417 | +$1,288 +91% | 22 |
| 326d | ganatalak3 fills | November 24 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $3,831 | +$1,056 +28% | 21 |
| 326d | Pygorean | November 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,362 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 326d | esac | November 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,120 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 326d | karenkarl | November 24 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,767 | +$21 +0.8% | 20 |
| 326d | Town15 | November 24 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,071 | +$132 +6.4% | 20 |
| 326d | Small-Garment | November 24 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,266 | +$161 +13% | 21 |
| 328d | CryptoBaggins | November 24 | SellNo67¢ → 100¢ | $1,103 | −$532 −48% | — |
| 329d |  Temmyr | November 24 | BuyYes51¢ → 0¢ | $1,377 | −$1,377 −100% | 20 |
| 330d |  Allinnothing | November 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,513 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 330d |  MasonsConqueredRome | November 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,189 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
VapaSnappa340 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between November 17, 11:00 AM ET, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for November 30 means the market gives it about 0%.