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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | 100% | +80 pts | +82 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 100% | +50 pts | +47 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Topuria to win by KO/TKO? | 0% | −71 pts | −68 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 0% | −17 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Gaethje to win by KO/TKO? | 100% | +81 pts | +78 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Fight won by submission? | 0% | −19 pts | −41 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 100% | +66 pts | +75 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 100% | +28 pts | +13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 100% | +26 pts | +46 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | 100% | +74 pts | +52 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds | 0% | −18 pts | −41 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124d | Green74 | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $2,681 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | Evertonoficial | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $4,743 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 124d |  GolD0Roger | O/U 2.5 Rounds | SellOver>99¢ | $1,294 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | freedl21 | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $38,271 | −$38 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | Recent-CustomNew account | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $1,032 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | richrichrichsad | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $33,122 | −$33 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | FlowLikeWater | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $1,451 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | blacknikolai | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $2,307 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | Sentimental-Satisfaction | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $3,758 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | JEJEEE | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $1,250 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | choochoochoo | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $2,539 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | imsuperlate | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $1,189 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | Roccosplorer | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $2,880 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | walterwhitepill | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $3,916 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 124d |  alpheclabs2 fills | Fight won by submission? | SellNo>99¢ | $6,941 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 124d |  ironic. | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $2,791 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 124d |  MiLive | Fight won by submission? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,668 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | zzqq35 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 124d |  pradamyslf | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $1,277 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | gbby123 | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $1,362 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | mastershi2 fills | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje88¢ → 100¢ | $4,838 | −$688 −14% | — |
| 124d | Deepcoin | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $5,277 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | Misty-Keyboarding-Entirety | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $1,095 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | Utter-Enquiry | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $6,892 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 124d |  Userroana | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $8,456 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | 0xGangy2 fills | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje79¢ → 100¢ | $8,564 | −$2,260 −26% | — |
| 124d | Coochiekilincols | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje>99¢ | $2,334 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 124d |  LarryDaddy2 fills | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje60¢ → 100¢ | $29,249 | −$19,453 −67% | — |
| 124d | moneymakingCam | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $1,015 | −$10 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | 0x5375…aeea4 fills | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $7,852 | −$79 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | jerekel | Gaethje to win by KO/TKO? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,152 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | jerekel | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $4,027 | −$41 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | Fada | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $1,414 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | tttrtrtrtrtr | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $101,140 | −$1,022 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | Mmmmmmmmy | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $2,357 | −$24 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | gysh.qs | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | −$10 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | 0x728f…40bd | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $1,810 | −$18 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | UFCTrader | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $1,534 | −$15 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | USASoccer | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $5,025 | −$51 −1.0% | — |
| 124d |  Ajwritescrypt0 | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $3,064 | −$31 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | Ajwritescrypt02 fills | O/U 1.5 Rounds | SellOver64¢ → 100¢ | $3,012 | −$1,680 −56% | — |
| 124d | Torn-Mine | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $3,093 | −$31 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | neutralwave23 | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $2,297 | −$23 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | Adored-LiabilityNew account | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $7,102 | −$72 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | Thefuture26 | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | −$20 −1.0% | — |
| 124d |  ButterTheDog | O/U 1.5 Rounds | SellOver>99¢ | $1,890 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 124d |  secretlogic | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | Orderly-TroutNew account | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $9,160 | −$93 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | shoemanhere | Gaethje to win by KO/TKO? | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,550 | +$450 +18% | 4 |
| 124d | West1717 | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $1,558 | −$16 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | 11zone | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $1,920 | −$19 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | suntori | O/U 2.5 Rounds | SellOver99¢ → 100¢ | $1,730 | −$17 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | givemeseouloh | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $2,005 | −$20 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | kk23ffx | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $1,380 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | Tom1000xonly | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $1,329 | −$13 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | Kramer | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $14,052 | −$142 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | omnibus-424779 | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $2,164 | −$22 −1.0% | — |
| 124d |  Kittie | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $5,618 | −$57 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | Bogus-Whorl | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje99¢ → 100¢ | $17,836 | −$180 −1.0% | — |
| 124d | Fuckindegen882 fills | Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria | SellJustin Gaethje95¢ → 100¢ | $4,187 | −$218 −5.2% | — |
joblessfinalboss150,000 shares
esportsbetter199,999 sharesThis market will resolve to "Justin Gaethje" if Justin Gaethje is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Ilia Topuria" if Ilia Topuria is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria means the market gives it about 100%.