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Polymarket · SportsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | 0% | −33 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 0% | −56 pts | −49 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Riley to win by KO/TKO? | 100% | +70 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 100% | +67 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 0% | −65 pts | −49 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Kamaka III to win by KO/TKO? | 0% | −5 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 0% | −71 pts | −58 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Fight won by submission? | 0% | −9 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 100% | +19 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97d |  C6H6 | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | BuyLuke Riley>99¢ | $1,223 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 97d | aviato | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | BuyLuke Riley>99¢ | $13,734 | +$14 +0.1% | 4 |
| 97d | Sassy-Bucket2 fills | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | SellLuke Riley>99¢ | $98,951 | −$99 −0.1% | — |
| 97d |  Xander-XX | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | BuyLuke Riley>99¢ | $20,494 | +$21 +0.1% | 4 |
| 97d | rndm42 | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | SellLuke Riley>99¢ | $1,427 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 97d | 0xaf0f…3f10 | Fight to Go the Distance? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,133 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 97d |  PlyQuants | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | SellLuke Riley>99¢ | $1,148 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 97d | tennischamp | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | SellLuke Riley>99¢ | $3,580 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 97d | Flustered-Conversion | Fight won by KO/TKO? | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | −$380 −34% | — |
| 97d | 0x6db5…e279 | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | BuyLuke Riley95¢ → 100¢ | $1,896 | +$90 +4.8% | 6 |
| 97d | Sassy-Bucket6 fills | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | BuyLuke Riley71¢ → 100¢ | $117,439 | +$47,794 +41% | 14 |
| 97d | om777 | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | BuyKai Kamaka III31¢ → 0¢ | $4,030 | −$4,030 −100% | 14 |
| 97d | Wordy-Littleneck | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | BuyLuke Riley70¢ → 100¢ | $4,642 | +$1,989 +43% | 12 |
| 97d | Grimy-Macrame-Cesspool | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | BuyLuke Riley70¢ → 100¢ | $1,281 | +$549 +43% | 15 |
| 97d |  VeryLucky888 | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | BuyLuke Riley68¢ → 100¢ | $1,308 | +$615 +47% | 12 |
| 98d | dv-pm | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | BuyLuke Riley67¢ → 100¢ | $1,512 | +$745 +49% | 12 |
| 98d | timezonewarrior2 fills | Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley | BuyKai Kamaka III30¢ → 0¢ | $14,216 | −$14,216 −100% | 9 |
This market will resolve to "Kai Kamaka III" if Kai Kamaka III is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luke Riley at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Luke Riley" if Luke Riley is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley means the market gives it about 0%.