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Polymarket · SportsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | 100% | +28 pts | +29 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 0% | −44 pts | −50 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 0% | −34 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Fernando to win by KO/TKO? | 100% | +53 pts | +50 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 100% | +40 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 100% | +19 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 100% | +51 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Tobias to win by KO/TKO? | 0% | −10 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Fight won by submission? | 0% | −17 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62d |  riggggggedGGGGr | Fight to Go the Distance? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,548 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 62d | Jittery-Confidentiality | Fight to Go the Distance? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,407 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 62d | kutsumiakia | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | SellLucas Fernando>99¢ | $1,339 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 62d | tennischamp | Fight to Go the Distance? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,200 | −$22 −1.0% | — |
| 62d | tennischamp | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | SellLucas Fernando>99¢ | $7,650 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 62d | 0x8a2c…3c32 | Fight to Go the Distance? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | −$15 −1.0% | — |
| 62d | Trollollollollol | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | SellLucas Fernando>99¢ | $1,800 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 62d |  thebluegem | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | BuyLucas Fernando99¢ → 100¢ | $1,211 | +$15 +1.3% | 4 |
| 62d | sts223 fills | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | BuyLucas Fernando93¢ → 100¢ | $27,197 | +$2,180 +8.0% | 6 |
| 62d | doris.G | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | SellLucas Fernando87¢ → 100¢ | $3,572 | −$532 −15% | — |
| 62d | TheWindKnowsmyName | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | BuyLucas Fernando78¢ → 100¢ | $1,214 | +$347 +29% | 11 |
| 62d | Substantial-Service | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | BuyRafael Tobias27¢ → 0¢ | $4,702 | −$4,702 −100% | 14 |
| 62d | Jittery-Confidentiality | Fight to Go the Distance? | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,038 | +$370 +36% | 13 |
| 62d | rabbitfoot12 fills | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | BuyLucas Fernando73¢ → 100¢ | $52,987 | +$19,733 +37% | 13 |
| 62d |  obamason | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | BuyRafael Tobias27¢ → 0¢ | $1,971 | −$1,971 −100% | 14 |
| 62d |  Kosherlocks | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | BuyLucas Fernando74¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$3,514 +35% | 13 |
| 62d | Yawning-Chicken4 fills | Fight to Go the Distance? | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $11,921 | +$7,001 +59% | 14 |
| 62d | tennischamp | Fight to Go the Distance? | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$822 +59% | 14 |
| 62d | Wordy-Littleneck2 fills | O/U 2.5 Rounds | BuyOver47¢ → 0¢ | $2,948 | −$2,948 −100% | 14 |
| 62d | doris.G | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | BuyLucas Fernando73¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$1,104 +37% | 13 |
| 62d |  sleepy-panda | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | BuyLucas Fernando73¢ → 100¢ | $7,300 | +$2,700 +37% | 13 |
| 62d | tennischamp | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | BuyLucas Fernando73¢ → 100¢ | $7,561 | +$2,796 +37% | 13 |
| 62d | euro-catcher | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | BuyLucas Fernando73¢ → 100¢ | $7,286 | +$2,714 +37% | 13 |
| 62d | texaskid | O/U 2.5 Rounds | BuyUnder53¢ → 100¢ | $18,685 | +$16,570 +89% | 14 |
| 62d | gambooool2 fills | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | BuyRafael Tobias30¢ → 0¢ | $6,329 | −$6,329 −100% | 9 |
| 62d | comon1192 fills | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | BuyLucas Fernando71¢ → 100¢ | $5,325 | +$2,175 +41% | 12 |
| 66d | riverskew | Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias | BuyLucas Fernando71¢ → 100¢ | $1,045 | +$427 +41% | 6 |
This market will resolve to "Lucas Fernando" if Lucas Fernando is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Rafael Tobias" if Rafael Tobias is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias means the market gives it about 100%.