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Polymarket · SportsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | 100% | +32 pts | +36 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 0% | −69 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ends before Round 2? | 0% | −13 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Machado to win by KO/TKO? | 100% | +83 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 0% | −71 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 100% | +80 pts | +50 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Ends before Round 3? | 100% | +76 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Fight won by decision? | 0% | −68 pts | −50 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Decision or Draw | 0% | −68 pts | −50 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Amaya to win by KO/TKO? | 0% | −2 pts | −41 pts | — · 19¢ | — | ended |
| Machado in Round 2 | 100% | +79 pts | +41 pts | 81¢ · 100¢ (19¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 100% | +7 pts | +50 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Fight won by submission? | 0% | −14 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 100% | +19 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Machado in Round 1 | 0% | −12 pts | −50 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Machado in Round 3 | 0% | −1 pts | −41 pts | — · 19¢ | — | ended |
| Amaya in Round 1 | 0% | −1 pts | −41 pts | — · 19¢ | — | ended |
| Amaya in Round 2 | 0% | — | −41 pts | — · 19¢ | — | ended |
| Amaya in Round 3 | 0% | +1 pts | −41 pts | — · 19¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20d | kutsumiakia | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | SellValesca Machado>99¢ | $1,557 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 20d |  yungtrappa | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | SellValesca Machado>99¢ | $1,798 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 20d | 01258787xy484874845451222 fills | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | BuyValesca Machado98¢ → 100¢ | $4,282 | +$83 +1.9% | 5 |
| 20d | karteror99.9 | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | BuyValesca Machado99¢ → 100¢ | $49,300 | +$700 +1.4% | 4 |
| 20d | TheWindKnowsmyName | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | BuyValesca Machado83¢ → 100¢ | $1,287 | +$269 +21% | 10 |
| 20d |  3648393489047 | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | BuyValesca Machado83¢ → 100¢ | $2,634 | +$539 +20% | 10 |
| 20d | sts22 | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | BuyValesca Machado81¢ → 100¢ | $1,159 | +$274 +24% | 10 |
| 20d | ferrariChampions2026 | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | BuyMelissa Amaya25¢ → 0¢ | $1,676 | −$1,676 −100% | 14 |
| 20d |  Flipadelphia | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | BuyValesca Machado65¢ → 100¢ | $1,625 | +$875 +54% | 14 |
| 20d | Madeira99 | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | BuyValesca Machado65¢ → 100¢ | $3,126 | +$1,683 +54% | 14 |
| 20d | christianox | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | BuyMelissa Amaya35¢ → 0¢ | $1,750 | −$1,750 −100% | 12 |
| 21d |  pup1 | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | BuyValesca Machado66¢ → 100¢ | $2,686 | +$1,384 +52% | 12 |
| 21d | brunomedm | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | SellMelissa Amaya34¢ → 0¢ | $2,464 | +$2,464 +100% | — |
| 21d | brunomedm | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | BuyMelissa Amaya35¢ → 0¢ | $2,563 | −$2,563 −100% | 12 |
This market will resolve to "Valesca Machado" if Valesca Machado is officially declared the winner of the fight against Melissa Amaya at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026. It will resolve to "Melissa Amaya" if Melissa Amaya is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 10, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya means the market gives it about 100%.