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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 100% | — | +62 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 17 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 24 | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 31 | 0% | −4 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 14 | 0% | +1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 195d | oidoioi | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,982 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 195d | Trustinghorse | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,465 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 196d |  billywebster | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,019 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 196d |  tomatosauce2 | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 196d | Catman6767 | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,077 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 196d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b045 fills | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $21,762 | +$46 +0.2% | 20 |
| 196d | cripes32 fills | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,796 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 196d |  Rex416 | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,250 | −$10 −0.3% | — |
| 196d |  CAR-AyatollahVersion | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,996 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 197d | oidoioi | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,978 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 197d |  The-Joker2 fills | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,310 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | Awkward-Bride2 fills | March 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,961 | +$361 +9.1% | 21 |
| 199d | gamehasyou | March 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 0¢ | $1,951 | −$1,951 −100% | 20 |
| 199d | Arman2 | March 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 0¢ | $1,030 | −$1,030 −100% | 20 |
| 258d | qwe258 | January 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,061 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 265d |  1BeaNataTime | January 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,472 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 266d | pechenka2311 | January 24 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,057 | +$33 +1.1% | 20 |
| 272d |  ZhangMuZhi.. | January 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,317 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 272d | qwe258 | January 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 272d |  Bromley86 | January 17 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,391 | +$10 +0.7% | 20 |
| 272d |  bamesjond | January 17 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,100 | +$32 +1.0% | 20 |
| 272d | pechenka2311 | January 17 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,252 | +$26 +2.1% | 20 |
2385892084820197492992733940100004747737738,333 sharesOn December 10, 2025, Ukraine hit and disabled "Dashan," a tanker involved in trading Russian oil, as it sailed through Ukraine's exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea to the Russian port of Novorossiysk. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-disables-shadow-fleet-vessel-with-sea-drones-black-sea-2025-12-10/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any tanker in the Black Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a tanker anywhere in the Black Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. Strikes attributed to Ukraine by media or third parties, such as Turkey, including the December 2 incident involving the tanker "Midvolga-2,” will qualify, regardless of whether Ukraine publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed. (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/2/russian-tanker-struck-off-turkiye-as-ukraine-targets-shadow-fleet). Ship seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the tanker will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for March 31 means the market gives it about 100%.