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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 80,000 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 79,000 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 81,000 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ 85,000 | 0% | −40 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 82,000 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ 78,000 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 88,000 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 89,000 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 87,000 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 86,000 | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 90,000 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 83,000 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ 77,000 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 76,000 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 84,000 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ 91,000 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d | xuejiao | ↓ 80,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,464 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 2d |  Facaie | ↓ 80,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 2d | Cavernous-Agriculture | ↓ 80,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,479 | +$5 +0.2% | 2 |
| 2d | Noteagle | ↓ 79,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,394 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 2d | Facaie | ↓ 79,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 2d |  gangwarharshit2 fills | ↓ 79,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,591 | +$5 +0.2% | 2 |
| 2d | duneprod1 | ↓ 81,000 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,638 | +$53 +3.2% | 2 |
| 2d | rebounceforlife | ↓ 79,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,513 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 2d | apper | ↓ 79,000 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,366 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 2d |  Tttyh | ↓ 78,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,378 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 2d | magcidwa | ↑ 85,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 2d | lingke | ↑ 85,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,600 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 2d | jjjclv6 | ↑ 85,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,000 | +$38 +0.2% | 2 |
| 2d |  walnascar | ↑ 86,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,091 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 2d | Navigator77 | ↑ 85,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$11 +0.3% | 2 |
| 2d | Navigator772 fills | ↓ 78,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,990 | +$16 +0.6% | 2 |
| 3d | 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b04523 fills | ↓ 79,000 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $9,522 | +$509 +5.3% | 2 |
| 3d | 0x2f88…dfd3 | ↓ 81,000 | BuyYes41¢ → 100¢ | $2,300 | +$3,376 +147% | 5 |
| 3d | fish8975344 | ↓ 82,000 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,749 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 3d | xuejiao | ↓ 82,000 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,798 | +$253 +5.3% | 2 |
| 3d | 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b04522 fills | ↓ 82,000 | BuyYes45¢ → 100¢ | $2,736 | +$3,344 +122% | 5 |
| 3d | 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b04522 fills | ↓ 80,000 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,312 | +$224 +9.7% | 3 |
| 3d | shaillakhani | ↓ 82,000 | BuyYes41¢ → 100¢ | $1,429 | +$2,059 +144% | 5 |
| 3d | Sharky6999 | ↓ 80,000 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,213 | +$135 +11% | 3 |
| 3d | Facaie | ↑ 89,000 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,990 | +$10 +0.5% | 2 |
| 3d | xuejiao | ↓ 83,000 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $4,672 | +$298 +6.4% | 2 |
| 3d | 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | ↓ 82,000 | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $4,164 | −$4,164 −100% | 4 |
What price will Bitcoin hit on October 14?
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for ↓ 80,000 means the market gives it about 0%.