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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Christ returns | 50% | — | — | 49¢ · 50¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Bitcoin hits $1m | 50% | — | — | 50¢ · 50¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China invades Taiwan | 50% | — | — | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire | 100% | −28 pts | −29 pts | — · 54¢ | — | ended |
| New Rihanna Album | 50% | — | −1 pts | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| New Playboi Carti Album | 50% | — | — | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Trump out as President | 50% | — | — | 49¢ · 50¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| GPT-6 released | 50% | — | — | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Drake releases Iceman | 100% | +1 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Another Pandemic | 50% | — | +1 pts | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78d | Shahzeb | Jesus Christ returns | SellNo50¢ | $4,050 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 78d | Shahzeb | Bitcoin hits $1m | SellNo50¢ | $4,040 | +$8 +0.2% | — |
| 79d | 0xcc74…0b7e | Jesus Christ returns | SellNo50¢ | $2,368 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 81d | shayanghorbani2 fills | Jesus Christ returns | BuyNo51¢ → 50¢ | $2,513 | −$49 −2.0% | 4 |
| 81d | Another-Allowance5 fills | Bitcoin hits $1m | BuyYes50¢ | $7,931 | +$36 +0.5% | 4 |
| 83d | omnibus-424779 | Bitcoin hits $1m | SellNo50¢ | $11,336 | +$23 +0.2% | — |
| 83d | omnibus-4247794 fills | Bitcoin hits $1m | BuyNo50¢ | $8,456 | −$34 −0.4% | 6 |
| 84d | Snoopy-Stockintrade2 fills | Bitcoin hits $1m | BuyNo50¢ | $3,081 | −$12 −0.4% | 6 |
| 84d | 0xcc74…0b7e | Jesus Christ returns | BuyNo51¢ → 50¢ | $2,416 | −$47 −2.0% | 6 |
| 87d | caidehen | China invades Taiwan | BuyNo50¢ | $3,882 | $0 0.0% | 20 |
| 90d | Noxious-Organization2 fills | Another Pandemic | SellNo49¢ → 50¢ | $3,776 | −$42 −1.1% | — |
| 91d | gambingtokabu6 fills | Jesus Christ returns | SellYes49¢ → 50¢ | $11,896 | −$243 −2.0% | — |
| 92d | 0x3958…1da2 | Bitcoin hits $1m | SellNo50¢ | $3,891 | +$17 +0.4% | — |
| 92d | 0x3958…1da22 fills | Bitcoin hits $1m | BuyNo50¢ | $3,905 | −$31 −0.8% | 4 |
| 94d | shayanghorbani | Jesus Christ returns | SellNo50¢ | $1,316 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 96d | 0x7310…e776 | China invades Taiwan | BuyNo50¢ | $1,000 | $0 0.0% | 20 |
| 100d | disdatderedem | GPT-6 released | BuyYes51¢ → 50¢ | $2,182 | −$43 −2.0% | 20 |
| 100d |  residual | GPT-6 released | BuyYes51¢ → 50¢ | $1,016 | −$20 −2.0% | 20 |
| 101d | suntori | Jesus Christ returns | SellNo50¢ | $1,284 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 102d |  tarzanl | Bitcoin hits $1m | BuyNo50¢ | $4,940 | −$39 −0.8% | 4 |
| 103d | abrakadabraa | Jesus Christ returns | SellNo50¢ | $16,990 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 104d |  elmcap2 | Bitcoin hits $1m | BuyYes50¢ | $1,995 | +$16 +0.8% | 4 |
| 104d | Quarterly-LinerNew account | Bitcoin hits $1m | BuyNo50¢ | $1,455 | −$14 −1.0% | 19 |
| 104d | poorinvest121 | Bitcoin hits $1m | BuyNo50¢ | $1,450 | −$14 −1.0% | 4 |
| 106d | T3Milk | China invades Taiwan | SellNo49¢ → 50¢ | $1,724 | −$35 −2.0% | — |
| 110d | 0xa1e7…16ef | China invades Taiwan | SellNo49¢ → 50¢ | $1,152 | −$24 −2.0% | — |
| 110d | Starspol | Jesus Christ returns | SellNo50¢ | $1,037 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 110d | 0xa1e7…16ef | China invades Taiwan | BuyNo50¢ | $1,078 | $0 0.0% | 20 |
| 111d | Cas9999 | Jesus Christ returns | SellNo50¢ | $1,538 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 111d | Gentle-SpokesmanNew account | Jesus Christ returns | SellNo50¢ | $8,178 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 111d | Eladyitshaki | Jesus Christ returns | SellNo50¢ | $15,440 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 111d |  Nik- | GPT-6 released | BuyNo49¢ → 50¢ | $3,150 | +$64 +2.0% | 20 |
| 115d | Remarkable-Read-RecorderNew account | Jesus Christ returns | SellNo50¢ | $1,262 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 115d | Remarkable-Read-RecorderNew account | Jesus Christ returns | BuyNo51¢ → 50¢ | $1,287 | −$25 −2.0% | 19 |
| 115d | wabawhje | China invades Taiwan | BuyNo50¢ | $1,000 | $0 0.0% | 20 |
| 115d | Eladyitshaki6 fills | Jesus Christ returns | BuyNo51¢ → 50¢ | $11,919 | −$234 −2.0% | 4 |
| 116d | ALEXd88989 | Bitcoin hits $1m | BuyNo51¢ → 50¢ | $2,925 | −$29 −1.0% | 4 |
| 116d | PSK95 | Bitcoin hits $1m | SellNo50¢ | $2,016 | +$16 +0.8% | — |
| 116d | PSK95 | Trump out as President | SellNo49¢ → 50¢ | $3,544 | −$66 −1.9% | — |
| 116d | PSK952 fills | Trump out as President | BuyNo51¢ → 50¢ | $3,510 | −$40 −1.1% | 20 |
| 116d | PSK95 | Bitcoin hits $1m | BuyNo51¢ → 50¢ | $2,020 | −$20 −1.0% | 4 |
| 116d | Gentle-SpokesmanNew account | Jesus Christ returns | BuyNo51¢ → 50¢ | $5,167 | −$101 −2.0% | 19 |
| 121d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Bitcoin hits $1m | SellYes50¢ | $6,951 | −$70 −1.0% | — |
| 121d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Trump out as President | SellYes50¢ | $1,544 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 123d | Frail-Trunk | Jesus Christ returns | SellNo50¢ | $1,905 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 124d |  mocking-guess | Bitcoin hits $1m | BuyYes49¢ → 50¢ | $1,972 | +$28 +1.4% | 4 |
| 126d | kaktus | Bitcoin hits $1m | SellYes49¢ → 50¢ | $1,164 | −$19 −1.6% | — |
| 126d | kaktus | Bitcoin hits $1m | BuyYes49¢ → 50¢ | $1,167 | +$17 +1.4% | 4 |
| 127d | 0x2539…0716 | Jesus Christ returns | SellNo50¢ | $2,476 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 127d | Vanes | Jesus Christ returns | BuyYes50¢ | $1,000 | $0 0.0% | 4 |
| 133d | gggamble | China invades Taiwan | BuyNo50¢ | $2,382 | $0 0.0% | 20 |
| 133d | 0x1f48…a1452 fills | New Rihanna Album | SellNo48¢ → 50¢ | $4,571 | −$160 −3.5% | — |
| 134d |  MysticFind | Jesus Christ returns | BuyYes49¢ → 50¢ | $5,927 | +$121 +2.0% | 4 |
| 138d | suntori | Jesus Christ returns | BuyNo52¢ → 50¢ | $1,332 | −$51 −3.8% | 4 |
| 138d | 0x2539…0716 | Jesus Christ returns | BuyNo52¢ → 50¢ | $1,752 | −$67 −3.8% | 4 |
| 142d | Foolish-Deal | Bitcoin hits $1m | SellNo51¢ → 50¢ | $1,992 | +$28 +1.4% | — |
| 143d | Rowdy-Seep | Bitcoin hits $1m | SellNo51¢ → 50¢ | $2,023 | +$28 +1.4% | — |
| 144d | Paltry-Sentiment2 fills | Bitcoin hits $1m | SellYes49¢ → 50¢ | $2,488 | −$43 −1.7% | — |
| 144d | canadapanda | Jesus Christ returns | SellNo51¢ → 50¢ | $1,134 | +$22 +2.0% | — |
| 145d | ploe | Bitcoin hits $1m | SellNo50¢ | $28,871 | +$221 +0.8% | — |
betbetbet632,041 shares
Wasteoftime1,020 sharesThis is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 50¢ for Jesus Christ returns means the market gives it about 50%.