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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 / Campaign | 100% | +5 pts | −14 pts | <1¢ · 100¢ (>99¢) | — | ended |
| Manufacturing | 100% | +22 pts | +15 pts | 70¢ · >99¢ (30¢) | — | ended |
| Ass | 100% | +88 pts | +78 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | 100% | +24 pts | +25 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Wife | 100% | +28 pts | +40 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Charlie / Kirk | 100% | +14 pts | +59 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| American Dream | 100% | +15 pts | −13 pts | 15¢ · 100¢ (85¢) | — | ended |
| America First | 0% | −42 pts | −33 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Illegal Alien | 100% | +22 pts | +26 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | 0% | −45 pts | −42 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 0% | −26 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Working Class / Middle Class | 100% | +45 pts | +63 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| America / American 20+ times | 100% | +17 pts | +6 pts | 96¢ · 100¢ (4¢) | — | ended |
| China / Chinese | 0% | −57 pts | −78 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Socialist / Socialism | 0% | −53 pts | −61 pts | <1¢ · 49¢ (49¢) | — | ended |
| Israel / Israeli | 0% | −12 pts | −25 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| -No Qualifying Event- | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Hell | 100% | +17 pts | +28 pts | 65¢ · 100¢ (35¢) | — | ended |
| Iran 3+ times | 0% | −25 pts | −53 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tax 7+ times | 0% | −33 pts | −56 pts | — · 63¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36d |  ZhangMuZhisDaddy | Manufacturing | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,748 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 36d |  yen4u | Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 36d | pemul2s | 2028 / Campaign | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,753 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 36d | yen4u | American Dream | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 36d | yen4u | Wife | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,018 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 36d | yen4u | Charlie / Kirk | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,823 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 36d |  KingZeManel | Ass | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,176 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
JD Vance is scheduled to give remarks at the RNC Convention on September 9, 2026 at 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about JD Vance's remarks at the RNC Convention scheduled for September 9, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not available by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 2028 / Campaign means the market gives it about 100%.