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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto/Bitcoin | 0% | −49 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Elon/Musk | 100% | +29 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Retard / Retarded | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China 5+ times | 100% | +67 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency | 100% | +12 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Trans/Transgender | 100% | +67 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | 0% | −77 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Term Limit | 0% | −6 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Canada | 100% | +14 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Mexico 5+ times | 100% | +73 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Ukraine | 100% | +5 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Epstein | 0% | −6 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| DEI/Diversity Equity and Inclusion | 100% | +31 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Tariff 5+ times | 100% | +33 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Mineral | 100% | +31 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Inflation 10+ times | 0% | −8 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Gulf of America | 100% | +28 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Zelenskyy | 100% | +33 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Greenland | 100% | +73 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Hamas | 0% | −43 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Panama | 100% | +43 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Million 10+ times | 100% | +62 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Mandate 5+ times | 0% | −8 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| NATO | 0% | −77 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Unemployment | 0% | −42 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Peace 10+ times | 0% | −21 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Beautiful 10+ times | 100% | +85 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Russia 3+ times | 100% | +45 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Putin | 100% | +27 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Ceasefire | 0% | −76 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Terrible 5+ times | 0% | −30 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 591d |  dave-blunts | AI/Artificial Intelligence | SellNo>99¢ | $4,018 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 591d |  siick | Zelenskyy | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 591d | siick2 fills | Epstein | SellNo>99¢ | $6,771 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 591d | Ccc | Zelenskyy | SellYes>99¢ | $2,485 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 591d | D42d3 fills | AI/Artificial Intelligence | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,461 | +$25 +0.2% | 20 |
| 591d |  BeneGesseritVoice | Term Limit | SellNo>99¢ | $1,034 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 591d |  🍝👹2 fills | Retard / Retarded | SellNo>99¢ | $22,977 | −$23 −0.1% | — |
| 591d |  Euan | Hamas | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,206 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d | 11122 | Mexico 5+ times | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,838 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 591d | 11122 | Peace 10+ times | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,622 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d | Euan | Unemployment | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,695 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d |  Burnmoneyuser | Mexico 5+ times | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,560 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 591d | 🍝👹2 fills | Mexico 5+ times | SellYes>99¢ | $18,372 | −$74 −0.4% | — |
| 591d | SaylorMoon3 fills | Mexico 5+ times | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $11,459 | +$270 +2.4% | 20 |
| 591d | D42d | Mandate 5+ times | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,220 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d | D42d | Beautiful 10+ times | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,428 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d |  noreasapa2 fills | Mexico 5+ times | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,802 | +$18 +0.5% | 20 |
| 591d | dave-blunts | AI/Artificial Intelligence | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,995 | +$27 +0.7% | 20 |
| 591d |  BlackSky123 | AI/Artificial Intelligence | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,430 | +$13 +0.9% | 20 |
| 591d |  sleepy-panda | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,418 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d |  Bertapotamous2 fills | Mexico 5+ times | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,329 | +$75 +2.3% | 20 |
| 591d | lug | Crypto/Bitcoin | SellNo>99¢ | $3,680 | −$18 −0.5% | — |
| 591d |  pepeFight | AI/Artificial Intelligence | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,242 | −$83 −2.6% | — |
| 591d | pantomime | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,975 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d |  Original-Zyn2 fills | Epstein | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,821 | +$151 +5.3% | 20 |
| 591d | Original-Zyn | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,965 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d |  Infringe2 fills | Mexico 5+ times | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,042 | +$31 +1.0% | 20 |
| 591d |  MotherTheresa3 fills | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $13,212 | +$2,329 +18% | 20 |
| 591d | khanoftruth | AI/Artificial Intelligence | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,950 | +$50 +1.0% | 20 |
| 591d |  CarJunior | Beautiful 10+ times | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,813 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 591d | 🍝👹 | Mexico 5+ times | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,415 | +$24 +1.0% | 20 |
| 591d | polyaffective | Mexico 5+ times | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,878 | +$20 +1.1% | 20 |
| 591d |  Miyagi Cat | AI/Artificial Intelligence | BuyYes38¢ → 0¢ | $1,016 | −$1,016 −100% | 20 |
| 591d | JRMOsp | Beautiful 10+ times | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | −$94 −8.5% | — |
| 591d | PrimaryPartner | Epstein | SellNo>99¢ | $5,204 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 591d | Breezy-Entrance | Putin | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,937 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d |  YoungGriff | Mexico 5+ times | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,206 | +$341 +28% | 20 |
| 591d |  LlamaEnjoyer | Term Limit | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d | Breezy-Entrance | Epstein | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,016 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d | chocolate123 | Epstein | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d | rbczz4 fills | Retard / Retarded | BuyNo>99¢ | $59,344 | +$132 +0.2% | 20 |
| 591d | jj1970jj | Term Limit | BuyNo100¢ | $3,121 | +$16 +0.5% | 20 |
| 591d | Original-Zyn2 fills | DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency | BuyYes>99¢ | $26,412 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d | PrimaryPartner | Epstein | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,743 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 591d | Stimulating-Desire | Crypto/Bitcoin | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,157 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 591d |  1240234 | Mexico 5+ times | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $2,733 | −$2,733 −100% | 20 |
| 591d | 0x834191a479261b32e522b738520b8d53a315de8 | Crypto/Bitcoin | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,960 | −$40 −1.0% | — |
| 591d | surf | Hamas | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,978 | +$247 +3.1% | 20 |
| 591d |  Anon1792681 | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,321 | +$21 +1.6% | 20 |
| 591d | 11122 | Greenland | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,629 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d | 🍝👹2 fills | Epstein | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,043 | −$21 −0.7% | — |
| 591d | fsx452 fills | Epstein | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,383 | +$28 +0.8% | 20 |
| 591d | NewEnglandBTC | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $25,853 | +$2,872 +11% | 20 |
| 591d | Euan | DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,553 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d | Anon1792681 | Trans/Transgender | SellYes>99¢ | $7,992 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 591d | MotherTheresa | DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,110 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d | Anon1792681 | Ukraine | SellYes>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 591d |  mr.ozi | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,265 | +$265 +21% | 20 |
| 591d | DeDon | Zelenskyy | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,235 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 591d | rbczz | Crypto/Bitcoin | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $2,296 | +$574 +25% | 20 |
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2025 State of the Union address on March 4, 2025, 9:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the 2025 State of the Union address. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will not count. If the 2025 State of the Union does not happen by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Trump ceases to be President of the United States for any length of time by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Crypto/Bitcoin means the market gives it about 0%.