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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No raid | 100% | +6 pts | +46 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| before Sept 16 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Sept 16–18 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Sept 19-21 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Sept 22-24 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Sept 25-27 | 0% | −1 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Sept 28-30 | 0% | −6 pts | −35 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 381d | laniakea-supercluster | No raid | SellYes>99¢ | $1,054 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 381d |  cruzzzz | No raid | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,365 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 381d | cruzzzz | Sept 28-30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,501 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 381d | chromatose | No raid | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | +$63 +5.1% | 4 |
| 382d |  Naichli | No raid | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,475 | +$78 +5.3% | 4 |
| 382d | Naichli2 fills | Sept 28-30 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,259 | +$285 +5.4% | 4 |
| 383d |  Titinbit | Sept 28-30 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,029 | −$116 −11% | — |
| 384d |  alwaysthrivin | Sept 25-27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,283 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 384d |  Iseethemtoo | Sept 25-27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,992 | +$8 +0.4% | 4 |
| 385d |  peggysage | Sept 25-27 | BuyNo100¢ | $3,980 | +$20 +0.5% | 4 |
| 385d | burrito338 | Sept 28-30 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,079 | +$89 +4.3% | 5 |
| 385d |  Oompa-Loompa2 fills | Sept 25-27 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,985 | +$22 +0.6% | 4 |
| 387d | Nebula-Croissant | Sept 25-27 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,252 | +$28 +2.2% | 4 |
| 390d |  Goopster | Sept 22-24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,434 | +$10 +0.3% | 4 |
| 396d |  GobiDesertCanoePro | Sept 16–18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,190 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 400d | wubddh | before Sept 16 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,504 | +$16 +1.0% | 4 |
The Global Sumud Flotilla, including its partner initiatives, announced that it will launch a Flotilla towards Gaza from Spanish ports on August 31 and Tunisian ports on September 4. More information can be found here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/31/gaza-humanitarian-flotilla-departs-barcelona-to-break-israeli-siege This market will resolve according to the date Israeli military or law enforcement personnel first physically board any vessel participating in the initiative, without authorization or consent from the crew or organizers. This market will resolve to "No raid" if no qualifying raid is conducted by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Escorting, shadowing, or issuing warnings without boarding does not count. Boarding with the crew’s consent also will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No raid means the market gives it about 100%.