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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not proven in 2024 | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Q1 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| Q2 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| Q3 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Q4 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 674d |  scrooge | Not proven in 2024 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,236 | +$12 +1.0% | 4 |
| 719d | H2g38K12 | Not proven in 2024 | BuyNo25¢ → 0¢ | $1,289 | −$1,289 −100% | 5 |
| 738d | OmenOfLord | Not proven in 2024 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,225 | −$91 −7.4% | — |
| 738d | OmenOfLord | Not proven in 2024 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,227 | +$89 +7.2% | 4 |
| 738d | OmenOfLord | Q4 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,320 | +$96 +7.3% | 4 |
| 739d | 122222 | Q4 | BuyYes15¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 7 |
| 742d |  fafafaffafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafa | Q4 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,865 | +$235 +13% | 4 |
| 743d | 0xfd81 | Not proven in 2024 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,262 | +$164 +13% | 4 |
| 803d | scrooge | Not proven in 2024 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | −$52 −4.8% | — |
| 906d | spongeee | Not proven in 2024 | BuyNo87¢ → 0¢ | $1,042 | −$1,042 −100% | 4 |
auns164 sharesThis is a market on the date when Satoshi Nakamoto's true identity will be definitively proven.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Not proven in 2024 means the market gives it about 100%.