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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Qatar | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| UK | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Germany | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| France | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Turkey | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Any E.U. Country | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Bahrain | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Canada | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Jordan | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Kuwait | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Oman | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 199d | 0x328a…5d7f | UAE | SellNo>99¢ | $1,200 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 199d | 0xSuperRekt | Saudi Arabia | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | −$10 −1.0% | — |
| 199d | Aeglos | Jordan | SellNo>99¢ | $3,696 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | Wowiwow | UK | SellNo>99¢ | $1,032 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | Reliable-Integrity | UK | SellNo>99¢ | $3,608 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 199d |  MisTKy2 fills | Jordan | BuyNo>99¢ | $54,511 | +$116 +0.2% | 20 |
| 199d |  Flipadelphia2 fills | Bahrain | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,725 | +$56 +0.7% | 20 |
| 199d | loraej2 fills | Bahrain | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,774 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | sharonv | Bahrain | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,158 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | mildredz | Bahrain | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,158 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | xsmonica | Bahrain | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,166 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | qwngmwruth | Bahrain | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,200 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | loraej | Bahrain | SellNo>99¢ | $1,417 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | m4rks | Qatar | SellNo>99¢ | $1,437 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 199d |  elmcap2 | Kuwait | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,165 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | loraej2 fills | Kuwait | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,814 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | xsmonica | Kuwait | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,883 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d |  White.Monster | Qatar | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,796 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | White.Monster | Saudi Arabia | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,060 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | White.Monster | UAE | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,780 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | mildredz | Kuwait | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,471 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | sharonv2 fills | Kuwait | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,104 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | bigricke | Qatar | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,428 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 199d | bigricke | Saudi Arabia | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,069 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 199d | exathomas | Any E.U. Country | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,069 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | tracydrf | Any E.U. Country | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,226 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d | Thin-Print | Saudi Arabia | SellNo>99¢ | $4,981 | −$19 −0.4% | — |
| 199d |  Valen9 | France | SellNo>99¢ | $6,390 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 199d |  abidal | Saudi Arabia | SellNo>99¢ | $1,507 | −$7 −0.4% | — |
| 199d | AnonymousPerson | Turkey | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,735 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 199d |  Everestpredictions | UK | SellNo>99¢ | $1,487 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | tongyiju2 fills | UK | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,422 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 199d | Everestpredictions | UAE | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,955 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 199d | Scientific-Detainee | Qatar | BuyNo100¢ | $5,060 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 199d | Able-Thump | Qatar | BuyNo100¢ | $5,034 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 199d | Creative-Mini | Qatar | BuyNo100¢ | $5,031 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 199d | WhatYouSayIsRight | UAE | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,167 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 200d | rustyecon123 | Saudi Arabia | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,335 | +$33 +0.8% | 20 |
| 200d | chilloutTt | Saudi Arabia | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,655 | −$23 −1.4% | — |
| 200d | Blx69 | Saudi Arabia | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,252 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 200d | WhatYouSayIsRight | Saudi Arabia | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | +$14 +1.2% | 20 |
| 200d |  alpha.chen | UAE | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,287 | −$13 −1.0% | — |
| 200d | Flipadelphia2 fills | Oman | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,292 | +$51 +0.7% | 20 |
| 200d | Flipadelphia | Germany | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,765 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 200d | Verifiable-Clank | France | SellNo>99¢ | $4,889 | −$18 −0.4% | — |
| 200d | Giving-Bottomline | UAE | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,531 | −$34 −1.3% | — |
| 200d |  DFK | Any E.U. Country | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,167 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 200d | Renan2030 | Qatar | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,047 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 200d | Amrosein4 fills | Saudi Arabia | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $5,762 | −$501 −8.7% | — |
| 200d | Chelseaone | Qatar | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,209 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 200d | Flipadelphia2 fills | Qatar | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,295 | +$173 +1.9% | 20 |
| 200d | Flipadelphia2 fills | UAE | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $11,303 | +$435 +3.9% | 20 |
| 200d |  aad99 | Saudi Arabia | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,139 | −$26 −2.2% | — |
| 200d | YHK | Saudi Arabia | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,837 | +$58 +2.1% | 21 |
| 200d | diadjaid | Saudi Arabia | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,918 | +$82 +2.1% | 21 |
| 200d | OLOTH | Canada | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,206 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 200d | OLOTH | Germany | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 201d | Shiny-Mark6 fills | Saudi Arabia | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $13,563 | +$1,448 +11% | 20 |
| 201d | Woski | UAE | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,028 | −$39 −3.8% | — |
| 201d | PuenThaksin | Qatar | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$45 +2.2% | 21 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for UAE means the market gives it about 0%.