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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 100% | — | +73 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| China | 0% | −12 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| European Union | 100% | +49 pts | +71 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| India | 0% | −8 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| South Korea | 100% | +26 pts | +38 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Canada | 0% | −5 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Japan | 100% | +80 pts | +77 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Argentina | 0% | −41 pts | −38 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Brazil | 0% | −2 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Germany | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| France | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Australia | 0% | −2 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Israel | 0% | −7 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Vietnam | 100% | −1 pts | — | 97¢ · 99¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 441d |  UwO | Mexico | SellYes>99¢ | $9,484 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 441d |  brodiaga | Mexico | SellYes>99¢ | $12,469 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 441d |  Greencandle | Mexico | SellYes>99¢ | $5,109 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 441d | valueorbubble | Mexico | SellYes>99¢ | $17,647 | −$18 −0.1% | — |
| 441d | Xaci | Mexico | SellYes>99¢ | $3,647 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 441d | babypanda | Mexico | SellYes>99¢ | $2,678 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 441d | eugen1j | Mexico | SellYes>99¢ | $2,968 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 441d | cnfiguridofjnfke2 fills | Mexico | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,532 | +$106 +0.4% | 20 |
| 441d |  MisTKy37 fills | Mexico | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $46,912 | +$634 +1.4% | 20 |
| 441d | Snoorrason2 fills | Mexico | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,846 | +$42 +0.2% | 20 |
| 441d |  duderr3 fills | Mexico | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,984 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 441d |  yzh1012 fills | Mexico | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,859 | −$246 −5.1% | — |
| 441d | valueorbubble5 fills | Mexico | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $9,917 | +$744 +7.5% | 20 |
| 441d |  JaidenAnimations | Mexico | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,258 | −$136 −11% | — |
| 442d |  kingsirpredictionconnoisseur | Mexico | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,891 | +$109 +5.8% | 20 |
| 442d | eugen1j | Mexico | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,793 | +$181 +6.5% | 20 |
| 442d | JaidenAnimations | Mexico | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,282 | +$83 +6.5% | 20 |
| 442d | yzh1013 fills | Mexico | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $9,227 | +$802 +8.7% | 20 |
| 442d |  Vovovovovovovo | Argentina | SellNo>99¢ | $1,029 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 442d | D1bdub | China | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,953 | −$26 −0.7% | — |
| 442d | duderr | Canada | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,333 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d |  bondoor | Mexico | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,320 | +$180 +14% | 20 |
| 442d |  Debosnys | Israel | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,547 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | LBZone | Brazil | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,256 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d | Debosnys | Australia | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,651 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | LBZone2 fills | Canada | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,698 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | LBZone | India | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,802 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | LBZone | China | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,603 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | guacamole | Australia | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,248 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d | ToyodaMan | Canada | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,590 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 442d | Debosnys | China | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,984 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 |
| 442d |  scout | China | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,710 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d | scout | Argentina | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,248 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 442d | MisTKy3 | Mexico | BuyNo19¢ → 0¢ | $1,137 | −$1,137 −100% | 21 |
| 442d |  Funfzig | Germany | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,908 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | Funfzig | France | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,633 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 442d | Funfzig | China | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,315 | +$35 +1.5% | 20 |
| 442d |  Car | India | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,484 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 442d | Funfzig | Canada | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,917 | +$55 +1.1% | 20 |
| 442d | guacamole | Canada | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | +$11 +1.1% | 20 |
| 442d | Car2 fills | Canada | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,545 | +$90 +3.5% | 21 |
| 442d | borntoolate.eth | Mexico | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,151 | +$54 +4.7% | 21 |
| 442d | Gennedy | Mexico | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,238 | +$94 +7.6% | 22 |
| 442d | Up-Down | Mexico | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,382 | +$82 +5.9% | 22 |
| 442d | Xaci2 fills | Mexico | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,203 | +$129 +4.0% | 21 |
| 442d |  cruzzzz | Mexico | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,658 | −$142 −8.6% | — |
| 442d | 854A7843 | Mexico | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,356 | −$172 −7.3% | — |
| 442d | cruzzzz | Mexico | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,765 | +$35 +2.0% | 21 |
| 442d |  TeemuPukki4 fills | Mexico | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,257 | +$244 +4.6% | 21 |
| 442d | brodiaga3 fills | Mexico | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,334 | +$92 +1.1% | 20 |
| 442d | UwO2 fills | Mexico | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,935 | +$59 +1.2% | 20 |
| 442d | Generator | Mexico | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,081 | −$45 −2.2% | — |
| 442d | Cloudy-Naming | China | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,169 | +$151 +13% | 23 |
| 443d | babypanda | Mexico | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,669 | +$14 +0.5% | 20 |
| 443d | yzh101 | China | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,395 | −$176 −13% | — |
| 443d | NilLea | China | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | −$141 −14% | — |
| 443d | poliform | Mexico | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | −$8 −0.8% | — |
| 443d |  Oompa-Loompa | Mexico | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | −$16 −0.8% | — |
| 443d | Whay007 | Mexico | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,304 | −$43 −3.3% | — |
| 443d | haohua | Mexico | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,020 | +$41 +2.0% | 21 |
Diversion49,000 shares
A6205,000 shares
TheComandanteCobra4,500 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity between July 1, and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/). Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Mexico means the market gives it about 100%.