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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | — | — | — · 100¢ | — | ended |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
The first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle is currently scheduled for June 27, 2024. This market will resolve to "Biden" if Joe Biden takes a drink from his water bottle before Trump does at the debate. This market will resolve to "Trump" if Donald Trump takes a drink from his water bottle before Biden does at the debate. If neither candidate takes a drink at the debate, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will only consider drinks once the broadcast has started and at least one of the candidates has reached the podium. If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "50-50". The primary resolution source for this market will be official footage of the debate, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.