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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other/Multiple | 100% | +46 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Craig Wright | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Len Sassaman | 0% | −14 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Hal Finney | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Dorian Nakamoto | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Nick Szabo | 0% | −12 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Wei Dai | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Adam Back | 0% | −15 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Gavin Andresen | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Elon Musk | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jed McCaleb | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| David Kleiman | 0% | −6 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Shinichi Mochizuki | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Paul Le Roux | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Gavin Wood | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Vili Lehdonvirta | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 738d | Kookydookydoo | Other/Multiple | SellYes>99¢ | $22,619 | −$35 −0.2% | — |
| 738d |  tunatyler | Adam Back | SellNo>99¢ | $1,215 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | carpetinspector | Craig Wright | SellNo>99¢ | $4,246 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | MaxShorter | Adam Back | SellNo>99¢ | $1,196 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | MaxShorter | Other/Multiple | SellYes>99¢ | $1,246 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 738d | Adelius | Other/Multiple | SellYes>99¢ | $1,288 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 738d | longtern | Adam Back | SellNo>99¢ | $1,135 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | diceandfight | Len Sassaman | SellNo>99¢ | $10,645 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 738d |  justwannalosemoney | Other/Multiple | SellYes100¢ | $1,339 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 738d | Spotted-Concern | Adam Back | SellNo>99¢ | $3,510 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | riskofnorisk | Dorian Nakamoto | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | riskofnorisk | Craig Wright | SellNo>99¢ | $4,770 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | Professorr-127 | Adam Back | SellNo>99¢ | $17,443 | −$17 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | ensemble0112358 | Other/Multiple | SellYes>99¢ | $1,681 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 738d | VarianceLover | Adam Back | SellNo>99¢ | $44,433 | −$44 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | PM7773 fills | Adam Back | SellNo>99¢ | $13,087 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | PM777 | Other/Multiple | SellYes>99¢ | $1,424 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 738d |  d1k212 fills | Other/Multiple | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,499 | +$29 +0.2% | 2 |
| 738d |  aldynspeedruns2 fills | Other/Multiple | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,569 | +$15 +0.1% | 2 |
| 738d | 0xffffffff | Nick Szabo | SellNo>99¢ | $1,063 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 738d |  Car4 fills | Other/Multiple | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,764 | +$114 +0.4% | 2 |
| 738d | 0xffffffff | Len Sassaman | SellNo>99¢ | $3,091 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | LFC8 | Adam Back | SellNo>99¢ | $5,749 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | sauv | Len Sassaman | SellNo>99¢ | $2,002 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | VvVv | Other/Multiple | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 738d |  Ferguson0500Turd2 fills | Adam Back | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,047 | +$28 +0.1% | 2 |
| 738d | cbncn | Adam Back | SellNo>99¢ | $1,749 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 738d |  456ythgbvcadscvb2 fills | Other/Multiple | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,851 | +$12 +0.4% | 2 |
| 738d | 456ythgbvcadscvb9 fills | Elon Musk | SellNo>99¢ | $24,106 | −$24 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | 456ythgbvcadscvb6 fills | Adam Back | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,639 | +$75 +0.4% | 2 |
| 738d | LFC8 | Adam Back | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,732 | +$23 +0.4% | 2 |
| 738d | cbncn | Adam Back | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,750 | +$7 +0.4% | 2 |
| 738d | VvVv | Adam Back | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,349 | +$5 +0.4% | 2 |
| 738d |  ANudeEgg6 fills | Other/Multiple | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $26,086 | +$710 +2.7% | 2 |
| 738d |  50Whence | Len Sassaman | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,627 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 738d |  SwaggyRach | Other/Multiple | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,506 | −$51 −0.8% | — |
| 738d | cairokid | Other/Multiple | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,982 | −$18 −0.9% | — |
| 738d | Bromsloy | Other/Multiple | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | −$8 −0.8% | — |
| 738d | tunatyler | Adam Back | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,211 | +$5 +0.4% | 2 |
| 738d | Anitta2 fills | Adam Back | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,980 | −$60 −0.6% | — |
| 738d |  palisade | Len Sassaman | BuyNo>99¢ | $33,720 | +$34 +0.1% | 2 |
| 738d | yesss | Other/Multiple | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,538 | −$12 −0.8% | — |
| 738d | 206d82 | Other/Multiple | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,670 | −$38 −0.8% | — |
| 738d | longtern | Len Sassaman | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,032 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 738d | rpo | Len Sassaman | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,768 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 738d | WigglyWaffles | Adam Back | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,977 | −$28 −0.7% | — |
| 738d | WigglyWaffles | Other/Multiple | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,908 | −$60 −0.6% | — |
| 738d | Merry-Intelligence | Adam Back | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,980 | +$15 +0.5% | 2 |
| 738d |  aebonds2 fills | Adam Back | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $16,770 | +$85 +0.5% | 2 |
| 738d | aebonds | Other/Multiple | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $13,046 | +$67 +0.5% | 2 |
| 738d | 456ythgbvcadscvb | Dorian Nakamoto | SellNo>99¢ | $8,106 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | dioretar | Other/Multiple | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,415 | −$19 −0.8% | — |
| 738d |  aenews2 | Adam Back | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,797 | +$133 +0.7% | 2 |
| 738d |  DancingonMarshmellos | Other/Multiple | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,420 | +$10 +0.7% | 2 |
| 738d |  sorcerer.022 fills | Dorian Nakamoto | SellNo>99¢ | $6,080 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | DancingonMarshmellos2 fills | Adam Back | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,533 | +$101 +0.8% | 2 |
| 738d |  HaterzLoserz31 fills | Adam Back | BuyYes5¢ → 0¢ | $58,305 | −$58,305 −100% | 33 |
| 738d | Iamaboyuragirl | Paul Le Roux | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 738d | Iamaboyuragirl | Nick Szabo | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 738d |  beastishngry2 fills | Other/Multiple | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,082 | +$23 +0.4% | 2 |
MacroBull5 shares
jayminho5 sharesThis is a market on who the upcoming HBO documentary will identify as Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Other/Multiple means the market gives it about 100%.