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Polymarket · CryptoClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Hal Finney | 0% | −63 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Nick Szabo | 0% | −17 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Elon Musk | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Adam Back | 0% | −3 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Len Sassaman | 0% | −10 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Craig Wright | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Dorian Nakamoto | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Wei Dai | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Gavin Andresen | 0% | 0 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Paul Le Roux | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Bram Cohen | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Individual A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Individual B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Individual C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Individual D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Individual E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Individual F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Individual G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Individual H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Individual I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Individual J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Individual K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Individual L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Individual M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Individual N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 178d |  club-neegy-fc2 fills | Len Sassaman | SellNo>99¢ | $3,564 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | GUUU23 | Hal Finney | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,187 | −$10 −0.8% | — |
| 178d | Hiworld. | Len Sassaman | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,856 | +$21 +1.1% | 2 |
| 178d | club-neegy-fc2 fills | Len Sassaman | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $3,773 | +$921 +24% | 2 |
| 178d |  Rex416 | Hal Finney | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,840 | +$160 +8.7% | 2 |
| 178d |  neetbets4 fills | Adam Back | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,681 | +$24 +0.2% | 2 |
| 178d | Ordon | Elon Musk | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,727 | +$9 +0.1% | 2 |
| 178d | neetbets | Gavin Andresen | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,249 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 178d | neetbets | Wei Dai | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,249 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 178d | neetbets | Bram Cohen | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,249 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 178d | neetbets | Craig Wright | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,397 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 178d | neetbets | Paul Le Roux | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,221 | +$5 +0.2% | 2 |
| 178d | neetbets | Nick Szabo | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,214 | +$7 +0.1% | 2 |
| 178d | Ordon | Adam Back | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,215 | +$21 +0.9% | 2 |
| 178d |  ComingBack | Len Sassaman | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$231 +12% | 2 |
| 179d | club-neegy-fc | Adam Back | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,510 | +$48 +1.9% | 2 |
| 179d | uifaebfae | Hal Finney | BuyNo39¢ → 100¢ | $3,683 | +$5,720 +155% | 5 |
| 179d | 🐥🥚🐣 | Adam Back | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$34 +1.8% | 2 |
| 179d | Ordon5 fills | Nick Szabo | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $33,050 | +$1,590 +4.8% | 2 |
| 182d |  beenraping | Elon Musk | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,009 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 182d |  0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd | Hal Finney | BuyNo38¢ → 100¢ | $2,046 | +$3,338 +163% | 4 |
| 182d | chobanilounge | Len Sassaman | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,336 | +$217 +16% | 2 |
| 183d |  yen4u | Adam Back | BuyYes17¢ → 0¢ | $1,492 | −$1,492 −100% | 4 |
| 185d | goingsocial | Adam Back | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,421 | +$114 +8.0% | 2 |
This market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Other means the market gives it about 100%.