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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 100% | +91 pts | — | 99¢ · >99¢ (1¢) | — | — |
| October 24 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| December 31 | 100% | +48 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| October 20 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 19 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 356d |  Allinnothing | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,087 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 356d |  scout2 fills | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,979 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 356d |  Private.ma.rket.sc.am | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,560 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 356d |  burratatata | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,000 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 356d |  enesaurus | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,579 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 356d | wisser | December 31 | BuyYes100¢ | $8,156 | +$41 +0.5% | 20 |
| 356d |  BlackSky123 | October 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,164 | +$48 +1.5% | 20 |
| 356d |  0x12345 | October 31 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,004 | −$114 −2.8% | — |
| 356d | haraya2 fills | October 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,421 | +$67 +2.0% | 20 |
| 356d | braghs34 | October 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,849 | +$121 +2.1% | 20 |
| 356d | KawaiKGIRL | October 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,359 | −$16 −1.2% | — |
| 356d |  probability3 fills | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,572 | +$36 +0.4% | 20 |
| 356d | EGGGGGGGGGGGGGG3 fills | October 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $6,840 | +$345 +5.0% | 20 |
| 356d | Me337 | October 31 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,944 | −$99 −3.4% | — |
| 356d | dontshowmyname | December 31 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,039 | +$302 +29% | 22 |
| 356d |  SilluBetsAgain | October 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $3,893 | −$3,893 −100% | 21 |
| 356d |  insidehers | October 31 | SellNo81¢ → 0¢ | $1,032 | +$1,032 +100% | — |
| 357d |  nameiskailan | October 24 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,123 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 357d | twf369 | October 24 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,490 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 357d |  Mythrust | October 24 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,397 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 357d |  PredictionYogi | October 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,303 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d |  Irboz-sama | October 24 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,964 | +$36 +1.8% | 20 |
| 358d | Thin-Print | October 24 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,177 | −$43 −3.6% | — |
| 358d | Jubre | October 24 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,145 | +$41 +1.9% | 20 |
| 359d | letsfingo | October 31 | SellNo77¢ → 0¢ | $4,280 | +$4,280 +100% | — |
| 360d | twf369 | October 24 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,324 | +$171 +5.2% | 20 |
| 360d |  willis1111 | October 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $1,925 | −$1,925 −100% | 20 |
| 361d | s3rban | October 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $1,249 | −$1,249 −100% | 20 |
| 361d | nameiskailan | October 24 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,046 | +$78 +7.4% | 20 |
| 361d |  Totenkopf | October 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,271 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 361d | hypeman | October 31 | BuyYes22¢ → 100¢ | $1,189 | +$4,217 +355% | 21 |
| 361d |  Bertschwert | October 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,700 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 361d | Supersenter | October 20 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,342 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 361d | jdvs | October 20 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | −$16 −1.6% | — |
| 361d | jdvs | October 20 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 361d |  Schizoaffective.On.Acid | October 20 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,676 | +$24 +0.9% | 20 |
| 361d | Ulysse31 | October 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 20 |
| 362d | magol2 fills | October 20 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,851 | +$58 +2.0% | 20 |
| 362d | trados | October 20 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,270 | +$15 +1.2% | 20 |
| 362d | Hspectero | October 20 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,450 | +$31 +2.1% | 20 |
| 362d | 0xPodoBest | October 31 | BuyYes25¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | +$3,343 +304% | 20 |
| 362d | tradose2 fills | October 20 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,175 | +$95 +2.3% | 20 |
| 362d | SuperbowlorBust | October 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,505 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 362d | Supersenter | October 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,077 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 362d | Bertschwert | October 19 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,999 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
CryingDog9,743 sharesSilluBetsAgain5,582 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is arrested in direct connection of the October 19th robbery of the Louvre by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only arrests of individuals for alleged participation in the planning or execution of the robbery itself will qualify. Arrests made solely for related or subsequent conduct — such as obstruction of justice, making false statements, possession, transport, or attempted sale of the stolen goods, or aiding concealment after the fact — will not qualify. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for October 31 means the market gives it about 100%.