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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 507d | couchfarm6 fills | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,288 | +$65 +0.7% | 2 |
| 507d | Kulinger42 | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,192 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 507d | Savagers | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,127 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 507d | Magickeyboard | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,002 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 507d | meropi3 fills | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,818 | +$59 +0.6% | 2 |
| 532d | couchfarm2 fills | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,945 | −$35 −1.2% | — |
| 534d | pemulis212 | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,883 | +$8 +0.4% | 2 |
| 534d | pd2 | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,141 | +$14 +1.2% | 2 |
| 578d | meropi | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,823 | −$33 −1.8% | — |
| 637d | TheBoyBilly... | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,914 | −$86 −4.5% | — |
| 638d |  silkroad | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,983 | −$209 −3.0% | — |
| 671d | silkroad3 fills | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $6,118 | +$291 +4.8% | 2 |
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.