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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 0% | −3 pts | −49 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 9 | 0% | — | −32 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 5 | 0% | −11 pts | −36 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 20 | 100% | +67 pts | +64 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 31 | 0% | +57 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 3 | 100% | +42 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 6 | 0% | −2 pts | −52 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 8 | 100% | −2 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 4 | 100% | +47 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 2 | 100% | +34 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 2 | 100% | +70 pts | — | 99¢ · >99¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| December 22 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 25 | 100% | +20 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 21 | 100% | +58 pts | +63 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 12 | 100% | +63 pts | +40 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 26 | 0% | +12 pts | — | <1¢ · 28¢ (28¢) | — | ended |
| November 17 | 100% | +65 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 18 | 0% | −1 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 4 | 0% | — | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| November 16 | 100% | +60 pts | — | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 24 | 0% | −14 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 3 | 100% | +66 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 30 | 100% | +66 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 1 | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 5 | 100% | −17 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 1 | 100% | +27 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 10 | 100% | +59 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 7 | 0% | 0 pts | −55 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 25 | 0% | −6 pts | −51 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 9 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 20 | 100% | +51 pts | +43 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 17 | 0% | 0 pts | −40 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 13 | 0% | −2 pts | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 26 | 100% | +40 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 6 | 0% | −2 pts | −33 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 14 | 0% | −3 pts | −33 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 19 | 100% | +63 pts | +48 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 14 | 0% | −1 pts | −45 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 15 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 23 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 10 | 0% | 0 pts | −54 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 7 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 27 | 0% | −12 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 11 | 0% | 0 pts | −57 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 23 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 11 | 0% | −4 pts | −55 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| December 27 | 0% | −1 pts | −46 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −37 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 21 | 100% | +51 pts | +51 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −38 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 22 | 100% | +45 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 18 | 100% | +57 pts | — | 100¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| December 28 | 0% | 0 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 16 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 12 | 0% | −1 pts | −49 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 19 | 100% | +64 pts | +60 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 29 | 0% | 0 pts | −30 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 13 | 100% | +66 pts | +40 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 15 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 8 | 100% | +1 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 24 | 100% | +35 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 28 | 100% | −13 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 29 | 100% | +33 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 287d | Ordon | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 287d | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 288d | December 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,450 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 291d | ngggrah | December 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,688 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 291d | randomlypunting | December 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,090 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 291d | cashy | December 30 | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,109 | +$399 +36% | 20 |
| 291d | December 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,768 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 292d | BigPom | December 27 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,159 | −$59 −5.1% | — |
| 292d | December 26 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,500 | +$87 +1.9% | 20 | |
| 293d | printerG | December 27 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,271 | +$14 +1.1% | 20 |
| 294d | December 26 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,206 | +$64 +5.3% | 20 | |
| 295d | December 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,737 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 295d | December 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 295d | theterminator-551 | December 24 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,333 | −$18 −1.4% | — |
| 295d | randomlypunting | December 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 295d | yougotme2 fills | December 25 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,376 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 295d | December 25 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,519 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 295d | dudukos | December 25 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,350 | −$57 −2.4% | — |
| 295d | 0x97cc…bbbf | December 25 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,881 | +$19 +1.0% | 20 |
| 295d | arinotary | December 25 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,546 | +$36 +1.0% | 20 |
| 295d | Sonix | December 25 | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $5,383 | +$1,263 +23% | 20 |
| 296d | needyourcash | December 23 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,574 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 296d | December 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 296d | December 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 296d | December 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,250 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 296d | Variable-Dump | December 23 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,968 | −$38 −1.9% | — |
| 296d | December 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,715 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 297d | Thin-Print | December 22 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,760 | −$12 −0.7% | — |
| 297d | Variable-Dump | December 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 299d | baicaiye | December 22 | BuyNo52¢ → 100¢ | $2,191 | +$2,023 +92% | 20 |
| 299d | lvdoubing | December 22 | BuyNo52¢ → 100¢ | $2,453 | +$2,265 +92% | 20 |
| 299d | December 21 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,811 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 299d | cashy2 fills | December 21 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,962 | +$23 +0.6% | 20 |
| 300d | machbut | December 21 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,893 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 300d | arinotary | December 21 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,960 | +$40 +1.0% | 20 |
| 300d | December 21 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,294 | +$160 +12% | 20 | |
| 300d | December 21 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,172 | +$160 +14% | 20 | |
| 300d | December 21 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,057 | +$307 +15% | 20 | |
| 300d | December 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 300d | yougotme2 fills | December 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,339 | +$40 +0.2% | 20 |
| 300d | December 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,737 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 300d | December 20 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,829 | −$74 −1.5% | — | |
| 300d | December 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,723 | +$20 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 301d | Lukyyyyyyy | December 20 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,359 | +$24 +1.0% | 20 |
| 301d | December 20 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,940 | +$240 +12% | 20 | |
| 301d | 0xhanxyz | December 20 | BuyNo83¢ → 0¢ | $1,643 | −$1,643 −100% | 20 |
| 301d | December 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 302d | yougotme | December 19 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,062 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 302d | greengasper | December 19 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
| 302d | December 19 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,122 | +$284 +13% | 20 | |
| 302d | December 19 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$243 +19% | 20 | |
| 303d | December 18 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,782 | +$28 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 303d | cashy | December 18 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,707 | +$21 +1.2% | 20 |
| 304d | Raptorr | December 16 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | +$17 +1.5% | 20 |
| 305d | December 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 306d | December 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,700 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 306d | December 14 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,773 | +$19 +0.7% | 20 | |
| 307d | December 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,400 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 308d | Drual | December 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,174 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 308d | December 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for November 30 means the market gives it about 0%.