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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 8 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 4 | 0% | −37 pts | −44 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 9 | 100% | +12 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 1 | 100% | +46 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 5 | 100% | +13 pts | +62 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 10 | 100% | +29 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 6 | 100% | +19 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 2 | 100% | +20 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 8 | 100% | +35 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 4 | 100% | +37 pts | — | 100¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| November 13 | 100% | +39 pts | +45 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 20 | 0% | −1 pts | −35 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 21 | 100% | +71 pts | +65 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 22 | 100% | +61 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 9 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| November 11 | 0% | −3 pts | −73 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 14 | 100% | +60 pts | +63 pts | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 16 | 100% | +68 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 19 | 100% | +41 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 22 | 100% | +40 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 18 | 100% | +26 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 13 | 0% | 0 pts | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 3 | 100% | +32 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 17 | 0% | −3 pts | −58 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 24 | 100% | +70 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 21 | 100% | +64 pts | +41 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 7 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 30 | 100% | +66 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 5 | 0% | −1 pts | −50 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 17 | 0% | −2 pts | −43 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 31 | 100% | +52 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 16 | 100% | +72 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 23 | 100% | +39 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 23 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 20 | 0% | 0 pts | −51 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 28 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 7 | 0% | −1 pts | −47 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 12 | 0% | −1 pts | −65 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 24 | 0% | 0 pts | −71 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| November 14 | 0% | −1 pts | −62 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 27 | 0% | −1 pts | −39 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 26 | 0% | 0 pts | −54 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 18 | 100% | +60 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 6 | 0% | −1 pts | −40 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 10 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 29 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 25 | 100% | +16 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −40 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 2 | 0% | −2 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 19 | 0% | 0 pts | −44 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 29 | 0% | +1 pts | −36 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 0% | — | −41 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| November 15 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 29 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 12 | 100% | +60 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 3 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 15 | 0% | +1 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| November 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −51 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 28 | 0% | −1 pts | −37 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 27 | 100% | +47 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 26 | 100% | +7 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 25 | 0% | 0 pts | −72 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 11 | 0% | 0 pts | −54 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 1 | 0% | −1 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 287d | Ordon | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 287d | Ad4m | December 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,967 | −$29 −1.5% | — |
| 288d | 1Blaze1 | December 30 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,214 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 289d | 1Blaze1 | December 29 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,754 | −$20 −1.2% | — |
| 291d | Ad4m | December 31 | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,483 | +$513 +35% | 20 |
| 291d | Ad4m | December 29 | SellNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,443 | −$565 −39% | — |
| 291d | 1Blaze1 | December 29 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$103 +5.2% | 20 |
| 291d | December 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,482 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 293d | Ad4m | December 29 | BuyNo61¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | +$782 +64% | 20 |
| 293d | Violet-Vinyl | December 28 | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,858 | +$805 +43% | 20 |
| 294d | Lukyyyyyyy | December 26 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,738 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 295d | December 26 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,043 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 295d | Lukyyyyyyy | December 26 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,149 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 295d | December 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,220 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 296d | December 25 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,684 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 296d | Violet-Vinyl | December 27 | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,502 | +$634 +42% | 20 |
| 296d | December 25 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$244 +16% | 20 | |
| 297d | December 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,091 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 297d | December 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,787 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 297d | December 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,843 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 297d | cashy | December 24 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,264 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 297d | printerG | December 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,241 | +$18 +1.4% | 20 |
| 298d | December 24 | BuyNo68¢ → 0¢ | $1,400 | −$1,400 −100% | 20 | |
| 298d | Violet-Vinyl | December 23 | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,951 | +$822 +42% | 20 |
| 298d | December 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 298d | Riddle-Master | December 20 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 298d | December 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,811 | +$22 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 298d | December 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,900 | +$26 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 298d | Michael5289 | December 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 299d | randomlypunting | December 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,152 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 299d | Lukyyyyyyy2 fills | December 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,179 | +$73 +1.0% | 20 |
| 299d | December 22 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $4,520 | +$712 +16% | 20 | |
| 299d | machbut | December 21 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,769 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 299d | December 21 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,062 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 | |
| 299d | December 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,343 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 300d | Lukyyyyyyy | December 21 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,010 | −$62 −3.1% | — |
| 300d | Lukyyyyyyy2 fills | December 21 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,515 | +$109 +1.3% | 20 |
| 300d | Sonix | December 21 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,029 | +$27 +2.6% | 20 |
| 300d | December 21 | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $2,722 | −$2,722 −100% | 24 | |
| 300d | December 20 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,626 | −$76 −2.9% | — | |
| 300d | December 22 | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $1,315 | −$1,315 −100% | 20 | |
| 301d | MichaelDavis9885 | December 20 | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,204 | −$213 −18% | — |
| 301d | Orielul | December 17 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 301d | December 20 | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$702 +35% | 20 | |
| 301d | December 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 302d | randomlypunting | December 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,079 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 302d | gingytrades | December 17 | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,086 | −$237 −22% | — |
| 303d | December 18 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,877 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 303d | Lukyyyyyyy | December 18 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 304d | lontou | December 17 | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $1,242 | +$699 +56% | 20 |
| 304d | December 16 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,027 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 304d | Lukyyyyyyy | December 16 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,314 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 305d | yougotme | December 16 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,171 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 305d | December 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 305d | LBZone | December 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,834 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 305d | December 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,298 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 306d | 8ff730 | December 13 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,461 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 306d | Violet-Vinyl | December 15 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,797 | +$403 +22% | 20 |
| 306d | 8ff730 | December 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,462 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 307d | yougotme3 fills | December 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,091 | +$49 +0.3% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for December 8 means the market gives it about 100%.