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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 100% | +5 pts | +44 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 31 | 0% | −6 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 322d |  Allinnothing | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,245 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 322d |  TeemuPukki3 fills | November 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $37,689 | +$291 +0.8% | 4 |
| 322d | bolla-577 | November 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,645 | +$26 +1.6% | 4 |
| 323d | Basquo | November 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,811 | +$76 +4.2% | 4 |
| 324d | arttheking | November 30 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,909 | −$73 −3.8% | — |
| 324d | Boogie96 | November 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,725 | +$23 +1.3% | 4 |
| 324d |  tsybka | November 30 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,768 | −$178 −3.1% | — |
| 324d | tsybka | November 30 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $5,607 | +$499 +8.9% | 4 |
| 324d |  Self-fulfillingOrders | November 30 | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | +$661 +57% | 4 |
| 330d | elPolloLoco | November 30 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $2,492 | +$811 +33% | 4 |
| 330d | arttheking | November 30 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $2,384 | +$1,284 +54% | 4 |
| 334d |  DumplingBMF | November 30 | BuyNo76¢ → 0¢ | $1,242 | −$1,242 −100% | 4 |
| 344d | misma | November 30 | BuyNo69¢ → 0¢ | $1,449 | −$1,449 −100% | 4 |
| 350d | DumplingBMF | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,851 | +$15 +0.5% | 4 |
| 355d |  BigRabbit | November 30 | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,197 | +$803 +67% | 6 |
| 366d | newtesting | October 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | +$253 +25% | 4 |
| 372d | KrackenSruster | October 31 | SellNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,408 | −$384 −27% | — |
| 380d | KrackenSruster2 fills | October 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $4,700 | +$1,095 +23% | 4 |
Joe-Biden3,754 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Slavy Ploshcha Volytsia x Pryozerna Volytsia in Yampil', Donetsk Oblast province, by October 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Yampil'1.png Intersection Location in Yampil': https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Yampil'2.png Yampil' Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Yampil'3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/xU3HDneXX384ce4w6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for November 30 means the market gives it about 100%.