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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | — | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $11.6K | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11h | imHoang | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo97¢ | $1,121 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 16h |  LA172 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo97¢ | $14,756 | +$4 +0.0% | — |
| 21h | 0x51b5a0c12bf89886c79723a0a5cec00404772ef4 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo97¢ | $1,577 | −$1 −0.1% | 2 |
| 1d | Liquidifier | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo97¢ | $2,910 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 6d | llh | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo97¢ | $1,147 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 7d | Epic4246 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo93¢ → 97¢ | $10,040 | +$459 +4.6% | 3 |
| 9d | Handmade-Platelet3 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $17,593 | +$309 +1.8% | 3 |
| 11d | ERANGALANG | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo97¢ | $7,052 | −$21 −0.3% | — |
| 13d |  ponczyk4 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $6,525 | +$181 +2.8% | 3 |
| 13d |  Degencrew | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo97¢ | $1,746 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 13d | sonnguyen95 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo97¢ | $10,259 | −$41 −0.4% | — |
| 15d | imHoang | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo97¢ | $1,020 | −$0 −0.0% | 2 |
| 18d | kosaks2 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $6,196 | +$69 +1.1% | 3 |
| 20d | ayali | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo97¢ | $3,825 | −$20 −0.5% | — |
| 21d | banchii | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo97¢ | $9,080 | −$38 −0.4% | — |
| 21d | ayali | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo97¢ | $3,786 | +$6 +0.2% | 3 |
| 21d | banchii | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo97¢ | $9,095 | +$23 +0.3% | 3 |
| 22d |  elmcap24 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $53,561 | +$407 +0.8% | 3 |
| 23d | crcl10002027 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo97¢ | $1,203 | +$4 +0.4% | 2 |
| 28d | janeju1029 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $20,892 | −$273 −1.3% | — |
| 30d | iraa38 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $17,863 | +$399 +2.2% | 3 |
| 30d | ggdajiba3 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $7,269 | +$138 +1.9% | 3 |
| 30d | ahoys2 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo93¢ → 97¢ | $4,392 | +$169 +3.8% | 3 |
| 30d | Ryan1365 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,147 | −$17 −1.5% | — |
| 32d | HumbleChristian6 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo91¢ → 97¢ | $18,398 | −$1,120 −6.1% | — |
| 34d | DawnOfYemen | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $2,867 | +$44 +1.5% | 3 |
| 41d | Handmade-Platelet2 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo93¢ → 97¢ | $16,480 | −$728 −4.4% | — |
| 43d |  poorersob | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $4,987 | −$89 −1.8% | — |
| 43d |  uncleroger7 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $45,280 | −$1,205 −2.7% | — |
| 44d | teddy658 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,510 | +$20 +1.3% | 2 |
| 44d | make888 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,042 | −$17 −1.6% | — |
| 44d | laotang888 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,042 | −$17 −1.6% | — |
| 45d | Serene-Decision8 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $60,946 | +$2,155 +3.5% | 3 |
| 50d |  polmar001 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,049 | −$19 −1.8% | — |
| 50d | uncleroger4 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo93¢ → 97¢ | $10,982 | +$461 +4.2% | 3 |
| 50d | thevisionaryman | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,423 | −$26 −1.8% | — |
| 55d | poorersob | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,430 | +$26 +1.8% | 2 |
| 56d | 0x4873…e5d82 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $2,151 | −$39 −1.8% | — |
| 56d | 0x4873…e5d82 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $2,167 | +$37 +1.7% | 3 |
| 56d | trump1311 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,466 | −$28 −1.9% | — |
| 57d | lakers6 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $2,390 | −$46 −1.9% | — |
| 62d | 0x2ee2…6ae63 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $4,122 | −$77 −1.9% | — |
| 62d | 0x2ee2…6ae63 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $4,393 | +$76 +1.7% | 3 |
| 62d | sonnguyen954 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $9,067 | +$297 +3.3% | 3 |
| 64d | TommyKFCV50 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $10,328 | −$201 −1.9% | — |
| 65d | pabrikduit | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $21,031 | −$417 −2.0% | — |
| 66d | ssxji2 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $4,148 | +$147 +3.6% | 3 |
| 66d | Scratchy-Forebear | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,250 | +$22 +1.7% | 2 |
| 71d | lakers6 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $2,000 | +$47 +2.4% | 3 |
| 72d | Another-Allowance2 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $3,847 | +$127 +3.3% | 3 |
| 72d | Lisbon | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $3,779 | +$103 +2.7% | 3 |
| 73d | baofu1682 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $4,076 | +$137 +3.4% | 3 |
| 73d | Dertp4 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyYes6¢ → 3¢ | $5,409 | −$2,668 −49% | 20 |
| 74d | Vvv | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo94¢ → 97¢ | $4,722 | −$130 −2.8% | — |
| 74d | Livid-Spine | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,332 | −$36 −2.7% | — |
| 75d | Elias.Thornwell6 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $12,230 | +$453 +3.7% | 3 |
| 75d | trerira | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,899 | +$49 +2.6% | 3 |
| 82d | theigloo | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo94¢ → 97¢ | $2,832 | −$80 −2.8% | — |
| 83d |  SiSi3 fills | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BuyNo93¢ → 97¢ | $14,000 | +$567 +4.0% | 3 |
| 83d |  LKFen | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SellNo94¢ → 97¢ | $3,109 | −$94 −3.0% | — |
elmcap277,039 shares
Trashbag62,460 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 3¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 3%.