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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
The Chinese real estate developer Vanke Co., Ltd. failed to repay approximately 2 billion yuan (around $283.56 million) of onshore bonds due on December 15, 2025. After bondholders rejected its request to delay payment, the company entered a five-business-day grace period, during which it must make the payment or reach a new agreement with lenders. If neither occurs by the end of the grace period, Vanke will be considered in default on this debt. Read more here: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-win-approval-delay-284-million-bond-payment-2025-12-15/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vanke defaults on this debt by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The primary resolution source will be official disclosures from Vanke Co., Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.