Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 90% | +12 pts | +2 pts | 89¢ · 91¢ (2¢) | $1.24K | in 76d |
| November 30, 2026 | 31% | −22 pts | +3 pts | 30¢ · 31¢ (1¢) | $239 | in 45d |
| October 31, 2026 | 2% | −5 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | $121 | in 15d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d | Infantile-Crime | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes91¢ → 90¢ | $4,439 | −$66 −1.5% | 4 |
| 35d | RisingFreedom4 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes77¢ → 90¢ | $5,276 | +$898 +17% | 6 |
| 62d |  twe2nty | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo40¢ → 10¢ | $3,694 | −$2,728 −74% | 9 |
| 114d | Egozic86 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo37¢ → 10¢ | $1,500 | −$1,076 −72% | 8 |
| 249d | tai22 | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes87¢ → 90¢ | $3,132 | +$92 +2.9% | 4 |
| 292d |  elmcap22 fills | Will Variational launch a token in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,626 | +$22 +0.1% | 2 |
| 320d |  sipp- | Will Variational launch a token in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$14 +1.0% | 2 |
| 323d |  pascaltiemann | Will Variational launch a token in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | −$13 −1.3% | — |
PicklePredictor400 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Variational officially launches a governance token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational (https://x.com/variational_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 90¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 90%.