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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500M | 100% | +25 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| $1B | 0% | −9 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $3B | 0% | 0 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 366d | cryptoh01der7 | $500M | SellYes>99¢ | $2,685 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 366d | studentgameer | $500M | SellYes>99¢ | $2,439 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 366d | studentgameer | $500M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,298 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 366d | cryptoh01der7 | $500M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,001 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 366d | chuks-666 | $1B | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,108 | −$10 −0.9% | — |
| 366d | top-g-official | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 366d |  LlamaEnjoyer | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,699 | +$11 +0.2% | 2 |
| 366d |  Telluxion | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 366d |  formernorrisfan2 fills | $500M | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,125 | +$115 +5.4% | 2 |
| 366d |  xitguke | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$5 +0.2% | 2 |
| 366d | elpredictoooor | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 373d | deepmouse | $3B | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,105 | +$98 +8.9% | 2 |
| 377d |  djwcx | $500M | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,396 | +$123 +8.8% | 2 |
| 379d | Niezname | $500M | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | +$107 +10.0% | 2 |
oxvs10 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Yieldbasis's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Yieldbasis (https://yieldbasis.com/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $500M means the market gives it about 100%.