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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300M | 100% | +3 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| $800M | 0% | −1 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $1B | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $2B | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $3B | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $4B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $600M | 0% | −5 pts | −34 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $500M | 0% | −15 pts | −65 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $400M | 0% | −57 pts | −86 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 255d |  leleko2k | $300M | SellYes>99¢ | $8,679 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 255d |  Cointraders | $800M | SellNo>99¢ | $11,761 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | Cointraders | $600M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,873 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | Ocrimocrim | $800M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,440 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | predictooooor | $600M | SellNo>99¢ | $13,092 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | C03B | $300M | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,746 | +$7 +0.1% | 2 |
| 255d | gstrader2 fills | $300M | SellYes>99¢ | $6,263 | −$16 −0.2% | — |
| 255d | dddgen | $400M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,003 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | leleko2k2 fills | $300M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $8,449 | +$239 +2.8% | 2 |
| 255d | roflingbets | $300M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,091 | +$9 +0.3% | 2 |
| 255d | Laurenman2 fills | $300M | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,566 | +$74 +1.6% | 2 |
| 255d | Knowing-SycamoreNew account | $300M | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | −$32 −2.7% | — |
| 255d | gstrader5 fills | $300M | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $9,111 | +$1,175 +13% | 2 |
| 255d | JasonOu2024 | $300M | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,050 | −$40 −1.9% | — |
| 255d | 0x8da9…4219 | $300M | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,125 | −$22 −1.9% | — |
| 255d | rovad | $400M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,082 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 255d | toanhtoanh2 fills | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,982 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 255d |  Ogonee | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,366 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | Ogonee | $800M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,135 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | plantostar | $300M | SellNo64¢ → 0¢ | $1,840 | +$1,840 +100% | — |
| 255d | plantostar | $400M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,077 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 255d |  degenofweb3 | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,195 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 255d |  LeonardoWeb3 | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $2,108 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | treasures | $300M | BuyNo85¢ → 0¢ | $11,996 | −$11,996 −100% | 2 |
| 255d | hozierfozier | $300M | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $1,920 | −$1,920 −100% | 2 |
| 255d | wewillwinwinwin2 fills | $300M | BuyNo64¢ → 0¢ | $3,855 | −$3,855 −100% | 2 |
| 255d | toanhtoanh | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,247 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 255d | wewillwinwinwin | $300M | SellYes50¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | −$999 −100% | — |
| 256d |  berboche | $600M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,605 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 256d | rovad | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,843 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 256d | jimmyjpeg | $300M | BuyNo40¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 3 |
| 256d | wewillwinwinwin | $300M | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,269 | +$656 +52% | 2 |
| 256d | kissbabyy | $600M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,765 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 256d | Number0 | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,382 | +$18 +0.4% | 2 |
| 256d | kevin-airdrop | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,446 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 256d | kevin-airdrop | $400M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,092 | +$11 +1.0% | 2 |
| 256d | ergerg43 | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,111 | +$7 +0.6% | 2 |
| 256d | aucharbonpourelle | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,593 | +$10 +0.6% | 2 |
| 256d | wewillwinwinwin | $500M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,244 | −$9 −0.7% | — |
| 256d | 889ytht | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,233 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 256d | iuhyug | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,677 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 256d | hellodi | $2B | SellNo>99¢ | $5,143 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | 65fgnyy | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,356 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 256d |  alanhutton2 fills | $800M | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $4,772 | −$516 −11% | — |
| 256d | fgnr3tb | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,322 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 256d | 767thhhj | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,666 | +$10 +0.6% | 2 |
| 256d | moonsol | $300M | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,994 | −$447 −22% | — |
| 256d | haitang | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,222 | +$18 +0.8% | 2 |
| 256d | twokey | $2B | SellNo>99¢ | $5,184 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | moonsol | $300M | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$160 +8.0% | 2 |
| 256d | Ronty | $600M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,509 | −$12 −0.3% | — |
| 256d |  0xtroublemaker | $300M | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,027 | +$96 +9.3% | 2 |
| 256d | 0xtroublemaker | $400M | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,023 | +$90 +8.8% | 2 |
| 256d | 0x470c4462c67a3fab03901b81c0b96909f8330ca6 | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,074 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 256d | rusgreat | $2B | SellNo>99¢ | $5,017 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 256d |  LtRishnu | $400M | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | +$156 +15% | 2 |
| 256d | nagibator228 | $300M | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,089 | +$286 +14% | 2 |
| 256d | newer2 fills | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,619 | +$43 +0.9% | 2 |
| 256d | Acclaimed-Manufacturer | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,011 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | birjesh | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,727 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Zama's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Zama doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $300M means the market gives it about 100%.