Conscious-Belligerency

Polymarket wallet 0xa2770432a5e6bd24c347c976b0d815db1f2c1182 · on Polymarket since Oct 20, 2025

Positions now worth: $3.36K
All-time profit: +$8.82K
Volume traded: $102K
All-time rank: #16,530
Markets traded: 152
Recent hit rate: 72%36 of last 50 closed

Open positions

13 markets · $3.36K

Market	Holding		Paid → now
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?Ends in 2d	Yes	816	76¢ → 94¢	$767	+$149 +24%
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d	Yes	961	58¢ → 68¢	$654	+$100 +18%
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d	Yes	1,137	29¢ → 34¢	$387	+$60 +18%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d	Yes	427	64¢ → 78¢	$331	+$57 +21%
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d	Yes	509	16¢ → 63¢	$322	+$239 +290%
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?Ends in 9d	Yes	440	63¢ → 71¢	$310	+$34 +12%
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?Ends in 14d	Yes	320	43¢ → 49¢	$155	+$17 +12%
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?Ends in 9d	Yes	539	20¢ → 26¢	$140	+$32 +30%
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?Ends in 14d	No	152	71¢ → 88¢	$133	+$25 +23%
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?Ends in 14d	Yes	320	20¢ → 35¢	$113	+$48 +73%
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d	Yes	176	36¢ → 30¢	$52	−$12 −19%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	47	12¢ → 0¢	$0	−$6 −100%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video?Settled - ready to redeem	No	500	30¢ → 0¢	$0	−$150 −100%

Latest trades

last 60

When	Market	Bet	Size
23h	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	BuyYes28¢	$11
1d	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	BuyYes80¢	$165
1d	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	SellYes26¢	$45
1d	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	BuyNo30¢	$6
1d	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	BuyYes69¢	$284
1d	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	BuyYes63¢	$280
1d	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	SellNo69¢	$701
1d	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	SellYes19¢	$49
1d	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	SellYes25¢	$63
1d	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	SellNo33¢	$123
1d	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	SellYes70¢	$1,459
1d	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	BuyNo26¢	$257
1d	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	BuyYes20¢	$258
1d	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	SellYes42¢	$73
1d	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	SellNo71¢	$719
1d	Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	SellYes1¢	$4
1d	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	BuyNo71¢	$109
1d	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	BuyYes20¢	$67
1d	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	BuyYes43¢	$142
3d	Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	SellNo99¢	$230
3d	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	SellYes63¢	$32
3d	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	SellNo95¢	$23
3d	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	SellNo74¢	$4
3d	Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	BuyYes55¢	$262
3d	Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	BuyNo69¢	$513
3d	Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1505 by June 30, 2027?	BuyNo71¢	$235
3d	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	BuyYes36¢	$66
3d	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	BuyYes38¢	$90
3d	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	BuyNo40¢	$10
3d	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	BuyNo42¢	$70
3d	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	SellNo99¢	$1
3d	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	BuyNo99¢	$1
3d	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	BuyYes61¢	$364
5d	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	BuyYes82¢	$33
6d	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	BuyYes85¢	$17
6d	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	BuyYes84¢	$140
6d	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	SellYes6¢	$3
6d	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	SellYes9¢	$4
7d	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	BuyYes40¢	$8
7d	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	BuyYes48¢	$24
7d	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	BuyYes49¢	$10
7d	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	BuyYes49¢	$2
9d	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	SellNo99¢	$1
9d	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	BuyNo99¢	$1
9d	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	SellNo99¢	$1
9d	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	BuyNo99¢	$1
9d	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	BuyYes35¢	$89
11d	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	BuyYes25¢	$41
12d	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	SellNo7¢	$3
12d	Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	SellYes14¢	$8
12d	Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	SellYes9¢	$15
14d	Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	BuyYes53¢	$11
14d	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	BuyNo43¢	$17
14d	Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	BuyYes50¢	$73
14d	Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	BuyYes40¢	$24
14d	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	SellNo1¢	$1
14d	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	BuyNo66¢	$34
15d	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	BuyNo57¢	$290
15d	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	BuyYes57¢	$234
15d	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	BuyNo57¢	$290

Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.

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