| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 292 | 89¢ → 78¢ | $229 | −$31 −12% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 386 | 39¢ → 23¢ | $89 | −$61 −41% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 87 | 52¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$45 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 43 | 70¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 57 | 83¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$48 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 53 | 94¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 94¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 65 | 62¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$40 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 15 | 71¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 3 | 86¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 80 | 99¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$79 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 58 | 86¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 117 | 51¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 96¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 125 | 40¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 99 | 57¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$56 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 17 | 81¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 211 | 95¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$200 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 13 | 81¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 52 | 58¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 60 | 67¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$40 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 65 | 77¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 55 | 64¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$35 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 4 | 69¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 44 | 68¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 35 | 81¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$28 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 68 | 59¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$40 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 14 | 75¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 98 | 61¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 4 | 80¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 4 | 67¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 786 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 74 | 75¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$55 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 67 | 79¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$53 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 109 | 55¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 64 | 79¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 66 | 76¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 16 | 88¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 36 | 83¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 101 | 59¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 32 | 88¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$28 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 4 | 84¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 81 | 98¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$79 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 17 | 83¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 62 | 81¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 51 | 98¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$49 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 43 | 70¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 35 | 98¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$35 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 4 | 82¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 63 | 80¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 36 | 84¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 4 | 67¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 70 | 57¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$40 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 200 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$28 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 55 | 40¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$22 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 372 | 94¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$350 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 97 | 62¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 67 | 75¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 61 | 90¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$55 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 39 | 72¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$28 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 32 | 71¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$22 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 59¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 74 | 68¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 77¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 16 | 89¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 147 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 45 | 67¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 66 | 61¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$40 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 3 | 89¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 3 | 88¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 57 | 76¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$44 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 1 | 88¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 45 | 60¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$27 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 4 | 75¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 102 | 59¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 4 | 79¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 119 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 51 | 79¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$40 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 6 | 86¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 58 | 86¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 96 | 81¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$78 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 8 | 66¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 31 | 89¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$28 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - September 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 58 | 86¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 65 | 77¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 98 | 61¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 13 | 80¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 93 | 43¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$40 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 102 | 59¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 15 | 69¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 206 | 97¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$200 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 13 | 82¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 53 | 57¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 41 | 69¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$28 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 70 | 99¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$69 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 42 | 66¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$28 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 111 | 54¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 77 | 65¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 213 | 94¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$200 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 95¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |