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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Kirk assassination | 100% | — | +55 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Israel–Iran conflict | 0% | −13 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Gaza–Israel conflict | 0% | −16 pts | −29 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kamchatka earthquake | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Air India aviation disaster | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Philippines earthquake | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberation Day tariffs | 0% | −4 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| US government shutdown | 0% | −5 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| DeepSeek R1 launch | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| GPT-5 launch | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Extreme heat | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder P | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder Q | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder R | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder S | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder U | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder V | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder W | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder X | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder Y | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder Z | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AA | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AB | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AC | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AD | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AE | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AF | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AG | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AH | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AI | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AJ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AK | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AL | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AM | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AN | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AO | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AP | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AQ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AR | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AS | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AT | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AU | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AV | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AW | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AX | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AY | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder AZ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 313d |  wish- | Charlie Kirk assassination | SellYes>99¢ | $21,183 | −$21 −0.1% | — |
| 314d | LBZone | Charlie Kirk assassination | SellYes>99¢ | $1,349 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 315d | poorsob | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyYes>99¢ | $50,229 | +$50 +0.1% | 4 |
| 315d |  Gnarls | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,214 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 315d | sleepin | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,534 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 316d |  Trading4Fridge | Charlie Kirk assassination | SellYes>99¢ | $2,053 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 316d |  TylerTurden4 fills | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $6,765 | +$499 +7.4% | 4 |
| 316d | wish- | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,160 | +$28 +0.3% | 4 |
| 317d | pc9527 | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,893 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 317d |  dumbestdollars2 fills | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,087 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 |
| 317d | kyobets | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 317d |  12figureg | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,698 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 317d | forinnerpsandr1x112222 fills | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,140 | +$14 +0.1% | 4 |
| 317d | JeremyWade | Israel–Iran conflict | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,633 | −$52 −2.0% | — |
| 317d |  AgricultureSecretary | Charlie Kirk assassination | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,577 | −$41 −0.9% | — |
| 317d | TylerTurden | Charlie Kirk assassination | SellYes>99¢ | $5,617 | −$17 −0.3% | — |
| 317d |  aenews2 | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 317d | aenews2 | US government shutdown | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,555 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 317d | aenews22 fills | DeepSeek R1 launch | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,317 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 317d | aenews2 | Liberation Day tariffs | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,656 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 317d | aenews2 | Israel–Iran conflict | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,084 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 317d | AgricultureSecretary | Israel–Iran conflict | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,223 | +$12 +1.0% | 4 |
| 317d | AgricultureSecretary | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,114 | +$73 +1.8% | 4 |
| 317d |  Anjun | Israel–Iran conflict | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,331 | +$228 +5.3% | 4 |
| 317d | Anjun | US government shutdown | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,576 | +$130 +5.0% | 4 |
| 317d | Anjun | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,081 | +$294 +14% | 4 |
| 317d | JeremyWade | Israel–Iran conflict | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,475 | +$210 +8.5% | 4 |
| 327d | Pygorean | US government shutdown | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$138 +2.8% | 4 |
| 335d | jghg87tGYHG | Kamchatka earthquake | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,878 | +$8 +0.4% | 4 |
| 335d | UJGJHG87t8ygyhg | Kamchatka earthquake | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$8 +0.4% | 4 |
| 335d | JIGHI987Y87Ggguhj | Kamchatka earthquake | BuyNo100¢ | $1,957 | +$10 +0.5% | 4 |
| 335d | ghjg87GYGUHG | Kamchatka earthquake | BuyNo100¢ | $1,912 | +$10 +0.5% | 4 |
| 339d | jh5634564 | Liberation Day tariffs | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,492 | −$23 −1.5% | — |
| 339d | h56eje5a | Liberation Day tariffs | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,026 | −$31 −1.5% | — |
| 339d | jh5634564 | Liberation Day tariffs | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,493 | +$21 +1.4% | 20 |
| 339d | h56eje5a | Liberation Day tariffs | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,028 | +$29 +1.4% | 20 |
| 339d | gyfjk45tr7ik | Liberation Day tariffs | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,851 | +$26 +1.4% | 20 |
| 339d | 5yhresdxzkl | Liberation Day tariffs | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,670 | +$24 +1.4% | 20 |
| 339d | kgchuvk786r | Liberation Day tariffs | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,804 | +$26 +1.4% | 20 |
| 339d | i567eju5e6 | Liberation Day tariffs | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,717 | +$24 +1.4% | 20 |
| 351d | Good-Shakedown2 fills | Charlie Kirk assassination | SellNo51¢ → 0¢ | $2,214 | +$2,214 +100% | — |
| 351d | Blind-Waveform2 fills | Charlie Kirk assassination | SellNo51¢ → 0¢ | $2,730 | +$2,730 +100% | — |
| 352d | Courteous-Penicillin | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyYes46¢ → 100¢ | $2,015 | +$2,365 +117% | 11 |
| 352d | Blind-Waveform | Charlie Kirk assassination | BuyNo54¢ → 0¢ | $2,916 | −$2,916 −100% | 10 |
This market will resolve according to the news topic ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search list for 2025, published on Google’s Year in Search hub. The authoritative location is trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search (navigate: Global → Trending → News), where the 2025 page will appear once released (the 2024 page currently shows the Global “News” ranking). If the listed market topic and Google’s #1 topic are reasonably closely related in ordinary usage, i.e., one is an umbrella for the other, one is a specific sub-event of the other, or they are clear synonyms/aliases (including abbreviations, misspellings, or equivalent phrasing), then it counts for resolution. For example, “Rafah offensive” counts for “Gaza–Israel conflict,” and “U.S. strikes on Iran” counts for “Israel–Iran conflict.” By contrast, distinct contemporaneous topics that merely influence one another do not count for each other unless Google itself lists them as a single combined topic (e.g., “NVIDIA stock plunge” does not count for “DeepSeek R1 launch”). This market may resolve as soon as the official 2025 data is released for the specified timeframe. If none of the listed options is ranked #1 in the respective list, or if Google does not release the 2025 Year in Search by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Charlie Kirk assassination means the market gives it about 100%.