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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500M | 71% | −1 pts | +4 pts | 69¢ · 73¢ (4¢) | — | in 441d |
| $800M | 69% | +2 pts | +7 pts | 67¢ · 70¢ (3¢) | — | in 441d |
| $3B | 44% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 42¢ · 46¢ (4¢) | — | in 441d |
| $5B | 19% | −1 pts | −4 pts | 17¢ · 20¢ (3¢) | — | in 441d |
| $4B | 32% | −3 pts | +1 pts | 30¢ · 34¢ (4¢) | — | in 441d |
| $20B | 1% | — | — | <1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $7B | 16% | +1 pts | +4 pts | 12¢ · 20¢ (8¢) | — | in 441d |
| $10B | 5% | +1 pts | 0 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $1B | 65% | — | +1 pts | 57¢ · 73¢ (16¢) | $54.6 | in 441d |
| $2B | 64% | +7 pts | +11 pts | 60¢ · 67¢ (7¢) | $9.06 | in 441d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56d | dramp3 | $500M | SellYes54¢ → 71¢ | $1,078 | −$342 −32% | — |
| 115d | hitjnn214 | $500M | BuyYes76¢ → 71¢ | $1,335 | −$80 −6.0% | 2 |
| 142d | rekt-prediction | $800M | BuyYes75¢ → 69¢ | $1,877 | −$165 −8.8% | 2 |
LornaPredicts706 shares
VibeyQuant529 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arc's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Arc (https://x.com/arc) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 71¢ for $500M means the market gives it about 71%.
