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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1B | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $2B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $3B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $4B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $5B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $700M | 0% | +1 pts | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $500M | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $300M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $200M | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| $100M | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| $400M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 206d | Prinas | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,783 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  OraculumNobius2 fills | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,984 | +$16 +0.1% | 2 |
| 206d | yougotme | $200M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,497 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 206d | 0XE04A5813b7043564654A776c9189F3AE527d094f | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,168 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 206d | Jugernout | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $7,522 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | tsekinming01 | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $56,673 | +$114 +0.2% | 2 |
| 206d |  adonpoli | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,980 | +$20 +0.2% | 2 |
| 206d | Mancos | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,493 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 206d | 02041992 | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $7,665 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  JoachimPeiper | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,999 | +$12 +0.4% | 2 |
| 206d | frogfrogfrog | $200M | SellYes100¢ | $1,184 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 206d |  Totenkopf2 fills | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,499 | +$18 +0.4% | 2 |
| 206d |  arabsearch | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,744 | +$15 +0.4% | 2 |
| 206d |  4threich | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,351 | +$9 +0.4% | 2 |
| 206d |  ChoosePoverty | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,298 | +$9 +0.4% | 2 |
| 206d |  poorersob | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,293 | +$7 +0.3% | 2 |
| 206d |  Alphax | $200M | SellYes>99¢ | $3,164 | −$13 −0.4% | — |
| 206d | Ba8f | $200M | SellYes>99¢ | $13,679 | −$55 −0.4% | — |
| 206d |  alihanyer | $200M | SellYes>99¢ | $10,838 | −$33 −0.3% | — |
| 206d |  bau7 | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $2,697 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | bau7 | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,095 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  Cerco3 fills | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,865 | +$16 +0.3% | 2 |
| 206d |  Infringe5 fills | $200M | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $13,633 | +$984 +7.2% | 2 |
| 206d | Flancho | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,437 | +$4 +0.3% | 2 |
| 206d | JX.2 fills | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,407 | +$54 +0.3% | 2 |
| 206d | ASDFGH43132 | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,141 | +$15 +0.3% | 2 |
| 206d |  llzl9d9ujfurhuer35 fills | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $49,894 | +$232 +0.5% | 2 |
| 206d |  Lolakis2 fills | $200M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,723 | −$24 −0.5% | — |
| 206d | OraculumNobius | $200M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,996 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 206d |  Gr33d | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,137 | +$6 +0.3% | 2 |
| 206d | yougotme | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,467 | +$19 +0.2% | 2 |
| 206d | awodkgrgr123 | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,121 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly3 fills | $200M | BuyYes100¢ | $13,184 | +$66 +0.5% | 2 |
| 206d |  HST7 | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,161 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | kobie3 | $200M | SellYes100¢ | $2,456 | −$12 −0.5% | — |
| 206d | C03B2 fills | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $46,883 | −$47 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | C03B3 fills | $200M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $42,750 | +$247 +0.6% | 2 |
| 206d |  lankysco | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $4,725 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | C03B | $200M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,960 | −$40 −0.8% | — |
| 206d | wowdontrug | $200M | BuyYes100¢ | $1,654 | +$8 +0.5% | 2 |
| 206d |  Iambull | $200M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,771 | −$11 −0.6% | — |
| 206d |  shal0m2 fills | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,033 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 206d | stealer | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,438 | +$11 +0.5% | 2 |
| 206d |  Rommel💀 | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,963 | +$8 +0.4% | 2 |
| 206d |  pintodasilva | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,694 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | holytorpedo3 fills | $200M | SellYes100¢ | $35,057 | −$176 −0.5% | — |
| 206d | gorbatenkko1 | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,611 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | kobie33 fills | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,821 | +$29 +0.4% | 2 |
| 206d | remoradefi | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $10,168 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  scout3 fills | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $183,183 | +$769 +0.4% | 2 |
| 206d | CramSchoolClub | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,310 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  Burnmoneyuser | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,256 | +$69 +0.4% | 2 |
| 206d |  Nomorepredict | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,920 | +$80 +0.4% | 2 |
| 206d |  gnkg | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $11,047 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  unrealfeeder | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,579 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  Nanqiaoz | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $11,638 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | Emperorvikky | $200M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 206d | dotheoppositeofme | $200M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,778 | −$11 −0.6% | — |
| 206d | oidoioi | $200M | SellYes100¢ | $2,355 | −$12 −0.5% | — |
Georman9,010 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Backpack's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Backpack (https://x.com/Backpack) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for $1B means the market gives it about 0%.
