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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes | <1% | −44 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $3.67K | in 76d |
| Willian Pacho | <1% | −32 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $3.36K | in 76d |
| Gabriel Magalhães | 1% | −47 pts | — | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | $3.25K | in 76d |
| Harry Kane | 92% | +3 pts | — | 91¢ · 92¢ (1¢) | $2.97K | in 76d |
| Lautaro Martinez | <1% | −40 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $2.69K | in 76d |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 1% | −5 pts | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $1.87K | in 76d |
| Jude Bellingham | <1% | −11 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $1.8K | in 76d |
| Lionel Messi | 1% | −8 pts | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $1.36K | in 76d |
| Lamine Yamal | 42% | +2 pts | — | 39¢ · 44¢ (5¢) | $1.12K | in 76d |
| Rodri | 2% | −41 pts | — | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | $986 | in 76d |
| Vitinha | 1% | −10 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $851 | in 76d |
| Nuno Mendes | 1% | −47 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $693 | in 76d |
| Declan Rice | 1% | −4 pts | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $343 | in 76d |
| Achraf Hakimi | 2% | −45 pts | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $310 | in 76d |
| Sadio Mané | 1% | −9 pts | — | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | $301 | in 76d |
| Vinícius Júnior | 1% | −8 pts | — | <1¢ · 3¢ (3¢) | $300 | in 76d |
| Marc Cucurella | 1% | −48 pts | — | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | $269 | in 76d |
| Marquinhos | 1% | −46 pts | — | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | $259 | in 76d |
| João Neves | 1% | −46 pts | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $249 | in 76d |
| William Saliba | 1% | −47 pts | — | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | $237 | in 76d |
| Luis Diaz | 1% | −46 pts | — | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | $172 | in 76d |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 5% | −4 pts | — | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | $150 | in 76d |
| Julián Quiñones | 5% | −18 pts | — | 1¢ · 8¢ (7¢) | $121 | in 76d |
| Kylian Mbappé | 56% | +1 pts | — | 54¢ · 57¢ (3¢) | $110 | in 76d |
| Dayot Upamecano | 1% | −21 pts | — | <1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Erling Haaland | 3% | −13 pts | — | 1¢ · 5¢ (4¢) | $102 | in 76d |
| Ferran Torres | 5% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · 10¢ (10¢) | $83.4 | in 76d |
| Pau Cubarsi | 3% | −45 pts | — | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | $65.8 | in 76d |
| Fabian Ruiz | 6% | −1 pts | — | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | $52 | in 76d |
| Michael Olise | 50% | +2 pts | — | 1¢ · 99¢ (98¢) | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13h |  Anjun | Willian Pacho | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,866 | +$16 +0.8% | 5 |
| 13h | Anjun | Lautaro Martinez | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,582 | +$12 +0.8% | 5 |
| 13h | Anjun | Bruno Fernandes | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,683 | +$12 +0.7% | 5 |
| 19h | GuaOneBest | Gabriel Magalhães | BuyNo99¢ | $2,475 | −$2 −0.1% | 5 |
| 2d | Violent-Figurine | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes80¢ → 42¢ | $1,150 | −$553 −48% | 17 |
Digital-Boy629 shares
LornaPredicts300 shares
chessplayer50 sharesAnjun1,341 shares
bigdihhh8881 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 2 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If more than 2 players tie for the top 2 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 2 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final two places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: <1¢ for Bruno Fernandes means the market gives it about <1%.