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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Ruiz | 11% | — | 0 pts | 11¢ · 12¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Kylian Mbappé | 95% | +1 pts | +2 pts | 94¢ · 95¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Vitinha | 5% | 0 pts | +2 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Declan Rice | 3% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 5¢ (3¢) | — | in 76d |
| Achraf Hakimi | 3% | — | +2 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | — | in 76d |
| Pau Cubarsi | 3% | — | +1 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | — | in 76d |
| Erling Haaland | 8% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 7¢ · 9¢ (2¢) | — | in 76d |
| Harry Kane | 99% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 98¢ · 99¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Jude Bellingham | 4% | 0 pts | −2 pts | 3¢ · 5¢ (2¢) | — | in 76d |
| Rodri | 78% | +1 pts | +21 pts | 77¢ · 78¢ (1¢) | $540 | in 76d |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 22% | −4 pts | −12 pts | 20¢ · 23¢ (3¢) | $475 | in 76d |
| Lamine Yamal | 98% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 97¢ · 99¢ (2¢) | $379 | in 76d |
| Luis Diaz | 2% | 0 pts | +2 pts | <1¢ · 3¢ (3¢) | — | in 76d |
| Michael Olise | 26% | −2 pts | −10 pts | 25¢ · 26¢ (1¢) | $159 | in 76d |
| Lionel Messi | 71% | −1 pts | +8 pts | 70¢ · 72¢ (2¢) | $150 | in 76d |
| Lautaro Martinez | 1% | — | +1 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | — | in 76d |
| Bruno Fernandes | 1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Vinícius Júnior | 1% | +1 pts | +1 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | $80.6 | in 76d |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 12% | −1 pts | −6 pts | 11¢ · 13¢ (2¢) | $13.5 | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d | Chonchitoooo2 fills | Vitinha | SellNo95¢ | $2,496 | +$1 +0.0% | — |
| 4d | Chonchitoooo | Achraf Hakimi | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,814 | −$23 −1.3% | — |
| 7d |  cryptojo | Pau Cubarsi | BuyNo97¢ | $2,501 | −$18 −0.7% | 4 |
| 7d | cryptojo | Vitinha | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $1,048 | −$8 −0.8% | 4 |
| 7d | cryptojo | Achraf Hakimi | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,599 | +$18 +1.1% | 4 |
| 10d |  Parz1vaI | Vitinha | BuyNo95¢ | $1,554 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 15d |  cubsy | Achraf Hakimi | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,065 | +$22 +2.0% | 4 |
| 15d | Chonchitoooo3 fills | Vitinha | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $3,176 | +$37 +1.2% | 4 |
| 16d | 0x3315…db2a | Ousmane Dembélé | BuyNo71¢ → 88¢ | $1,316 | +$315 +24% | 23 |
| 17d | Calm-Ikebana | Kylian Mbappé | BuyYes88¢ → 95¢ | $2,560 | +$189 +7.4% | 4 |
| 18d | thoodr | Lamine Yamal | BuyYes96¢ → 98¢ | $1,462 | +$19 +1.3% | 6 |
| 19d | Chonchitoooo | Declan Rice | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,017 | +$6 +0.6% | 4 |
| 24d |  sciuboi | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | BuyNo51¢ → 79¢ | $1,047 | +$552 +53% | 24 |
| 28d | Akayus | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | BuyNo51¢ → 79¢ | $1,075 | +$583 +54% | 24 |
| 29d | KjerstinDellert | Lionel Messi | BuyYes40¢ → 71¢ | $1,000 | +$775 +77% | 24 |
crypto-basenji4,428 shares
StillWater0200 shares
DerDon1,650 sharescubsy780 shares
Paeniscus.707 sharesThis market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 5 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve "No." If more than 5 players tie for the top 5 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official top 5 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final five places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 11¢ for Fabian Ruiz means the market gives it about 11%.