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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2B | 39% | — | −1 pts | 38¢ · 39¢ (1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $6B | 28% | — | −1 pts | 28¢ · 29¢ (1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $8B | 19% | −1 pts | — | 18¢ · 19¢ (1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $4B | 36% | — | — | 35¢ · 36¢ (1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $10B | 16% | — | — | 15¢ · 16¢ (1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $500M | 39% | +1 pts | −7 pts | 38¢ · 40¢ (2¢) | — | in 441d |
| $1B | 39% | — | −1 pts | 38¢ · 39¢ (1¢) | — | in 441d |
| $5B | 28% | −1 pts | −4 pts | 27¢ · 30¢ (3¢) | — | in 441d |
| $3B | 35% | — | −1 pts | 34¢ · 36¢ (2¢) | — | in 441d |
| $12B | 16% | — | −1 pts | 15¢ · 17¢ (2¢) | $37.6 | in 441d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d | daweishashax | $2B | BuyNo57¢ → 62¢ | $1,564 | +$110 +7.1% | 2 |
| 20d | Webbedjiggy | $12B | SellYes10¢ → 16¢ | $2,024 | −$1,188 −59% | — |
| 23d | Webbedjiggy4 fills | $2B | SellNo47¢ → 62¢ | $7,362 | −$2,370 −32% | — |
| 31d | keasiyo | $2B | SellYes42¢ → 39¢ | $1,929 | +$162 +8.4% | — |
| 44d |  sipp- | $10B | SellNo83¢ → 85¢ | $2,074 | −$37 −1.8% | — |
| 44d |  cuti2 fills | $12B | SellNo81¢ → 84¢ | $3,265 | −$121 −3.7% | — |
| 52d |  Decayer | $500M | SellNo42¢ → 61¢ | $1,012 | −$449 −44% | — |
| 56d | dramp3 | $2B | SellYes39¢ | $1,857 | +$33 +1.8% | — |
| 83d | MaxEnt | $2B | BuyNo41¢ → 62¢ | $1,171 | +$586 +50% | 2 |
| 86d | cuti | $6B | SellNo67¢ → 72¢ | $1,114 | −$70 −6.3% | — |
| 86d |  dadadadayazi | $500M | SellYes60¢ → 39¢ | $1,175 | +$412 +35% | — |
| 102d | dadadadayazi | $500M | BuyYes79¢ → 39¢ | $5,048 | −$2,548 −50% | 2 |
| 114d | dotheoppositeofme | $2B | SellYes64¢ → 39¢ | $1,992 | +$794 +40% | — |
| 128d | gggg5 | $6B | SellNo59¢ → 72¢ | $1,229 | −$273 −22% | — |
| 144d | gggg5 | $10B | SellNo60¢ → 85¢ | $1,218 | −$488 −40% | — |
| 178d | nylalala | $4B | SellNo56¢ → 65¢ | $1,208 | −$183 −15% | — |
| 184d |  XieGuangKun2 fills | $6B | BuyNo70¢ → 72¢ | $3,054 | +$65 +2.1% | 2 |
| 189d | cuti | $12B | BuyNo86¢ → 84¢ | $2,150 | −$50 −2.3% | 4 |
| 194d | lvshang | $12B | SellNo85¢ → 84¢ | $1,954 | +$23 +1.2% | — |
| 198d |  SongXiaoFeng | $6B | BuyNo71¢ → 72¢ | $2,526 | +$18 +0.7% | 2 |
| 207d | cuti2 fills | $8B | BuyNo77¢ → 82¢ | $3,079 | +$181 +5.9% | 2 |
| 207d | cuti2 fills | $6B | BuyNo72¢ | $3,959 | −$27 −0.7% | 2 |
| 210d | Knobby-Disparity3 fills | $6B | SellNo70¢ → 72¢ | $5,770 | −$106 −1.8% | — |
| 216d |  Samwisealways | $6B | BuyNo70¢ → 72¢ | $4,900 | +$105 +2.1% | 2 |
| 219d | Jaygo | $8B | BuyNo77¢ → 82¢ | $2,488 | +$145 +5.8% | 2 |
| 220d | Loathsome-Emphasis | $2B | BuyYes67¢ → 39¢ | $1,227 | −$520 −42% | 2 |
| 221d | XieGuangKun | $8B | SellNo77¢ → 82¢ | $3,427 | −$200 −5.8% | — |
| 233d | Knobby-Disparity | $2B | SellNo34¢ → 62¢ | $1,191 | −$961 −81% | — |
| 239d | tryingmyluckhere | $6B | BuyNo71¢ → 72¢ | $1,255 | +$9 +0.7% | 2 |
| 241d | lfg96772 fills | $2B | BuyYes83¢ → 39¢ | $5,171 | −$2,768 −54% | 2 |
| 251d | keasiyo | $2B | BuyYes69¢ → 39¢ | $3,166 | −$1,399 −44% | 2 |
| 252d | lexaman.eth | $2B | SellNo31¢ → 62¢ | $1,772 | −$1,738 −98% | — |
| 254d | bejoxbt | $6B | BuyNo72¢ | $1,457 | −$20 −1.4% | 2 |
| 254d | SongXiaoFeng | $10B | BuyNo86¢ → 85¢ | $1,492 | −$26 −1.7% | 2 |
| 254d | dramp3 | $2B | BuyYes69¢ → 39¢ | $2,021 | −$891 −44% | 2 |
| 254d | SongXiaoFeng | $12B | BuyNo87¢ → 84¢ | $3,410 | −$116 −3.4% | 4 |
| 255d | dotheoppositeofme2 fills | $2B | BuyYes76¢ → 39¢ | $2,366 | −$1,167 −49% | 2 |
| 257d | XieGuangKun | $12B | SellNo84¢ | $4,225 | +$0 +0.0% | — |
| 258d | Knobby-Disparity | $12B | BuyNo82¢ → 84¢ | $2,117 | +$52 +2.4% | 5 |
| 258d | XieGuangKun | $8B | BuyNo58¢ → 82¢ | $1,176 | +$477 +41% | 2 |
| 259d | Knobby-Disparity3 fills | $6B | BuyNo48¢ → 72¢ | $8,640 | +$4,230 +49% | 3 |
| 260d | XieGuangKun | $12B | BuyNo73¢ → 84¢ | $2,323 | +$350 +15% | 7 |
| 276d | suuuli | $2B | SellYes93¢ → 39¢ | $1,860 | +$1,090 +59% | — |
| 276d | firstone-075 | $12B | BuyNo71¢ → 84¢ | $1,394 | +$255 +18% | 7 |
| 278d | Dependable-Blight | $2B | BuyNo8¢ → 62¢ | $1,164 | +$7,526 +647% | 5 |
| 279d | firstone-075 | $2B | BuyYes92¢ → 39¢ | $2,927 | −$1,702 −58% | 2 |
| 280d | owl777 | $2B | SellYes91¢ → 39¢ | $1,059 | +$611 +58% | — |
| 285d | sipp- | $12B | BuyNo72¢ → 84¢ | $2,007 | +$335 +17% | 7 |
| 286d | owl777 | $2B | BuyYes91¢ → 39¢ | $1,108 | −$638 −58% | 2 |
| 287d | suuuli | $2B | BuyYes90¢ → 39¢ | $17,100 | −$9,785 −57% | 2 |
Melqui2,663 shares
Burnsmaxi1,769 shares
MarketCat1,421 shares
balthazar2,039 shares
altaironmission1,474 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 39¢ for $2B means the market gives it about 39%.