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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500M | 0% | 0 pts | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $200M | 0% | −4 pts | +14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $100M | 100% | +1 pts | +21 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| $300M | 0% | −1 pts | +6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $1B | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $800M | 0% | 0 pts | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $50M | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| $2B | 0% | 0 pts | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $3B | 0% | — | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $4B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $75M | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 199d | Marioy | $50M | SellYes>99¢ | $2,503 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | babyhiya | $75M | SellYes>99¢ | $6,008 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | gugugaga123 | $200M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,191 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 199d |  Kamikaze99 | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,194 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 199d | Critical-Butterfly | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $5,964 | −$13 −0.2% | — |
| 199d | Flancho | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,172 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 199d | PNL20026 | $200M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,278 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 199d | Maticcc | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,500 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 199d | USERgm | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 199d | Tiop | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,046 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 199d | Calculating-Yam | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,627 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 199d | Yuoop5 | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,813 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 199d | oklmltd3 fills | $100M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,295 | +$79 +1.1% | 2 |
| 199d | Sekiraw | $100M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,562 | −$16 −1.0% | — |
| 199d |  Nik- | $100M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,287 | +$14 +1.1% | 2 |
| 199d | Zzzz87 | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,982 | +$18 +0.1% | 2 |
| 199d | OfferLifter | $100M | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,360 | +$140 +4.2% | 2 |
| 199d | SolFlip | $100M | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,321 | +$55 +4.2% | 2 |
| 199d | lichenglicheng | $100M | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,456 | +$269 +4.2% | 2 |
| 199d | Saori.Kido | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,653 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 199d |  leleko2k | $100M | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,001 | +$222 +11% | 2 |
| 199d |  ALNALA | $800M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,411 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 199d |  psyph3r | $200M | SellNo100¢ | $3,511 | −$18 −0.5% | — |
| 199d |  Hyperlong | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,446 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | Kamikaze99 | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,203 | +$8 +0.1% | 2 |
| 200d | Adelius | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,269 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 200d | Kamikaze99 | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,409 | +$7 +0.1% | 2 |
| 200d | lu122 fills | $200M | SellNo>99¢ | $5,601 | −$28 −0.5% | — |
| 200d | tsekinming01 | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,827 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 200d | Seropkolen | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,062 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 200d |  kafuchino | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,184 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 200d | kafuchino | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,037 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 200d | 17th-floor | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 200d | supafan | $75M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$20 +1.5% | 2 |
| 200d | 0xBase | $200M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,010 | −$15 −0.5% | — |
| 200d | seedah | $800M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,530 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 200d |  SOLinvestigator | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,517 | +$5 +0.3% | 2 |
| 200d | refzer | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,502 | +$15 +0.2% | 2 |
| 200d | qoxldtls | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,985 | −$15 −0.5% | — |
| 200d | qoxldtls | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,237 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 200d |  Saykoth.eth | $50M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,612 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 200d | FarmMachine2 fills | $200M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,945 | +$55 +0.6% | 2 |
| 200d | lichenglicheng | $200M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,219 | +$19 +0.6% | 2 |
| 200d | 17th-floor | $200M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | +$9 +0.6% | 2 |
| 200d |  donjo2 fills | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,993 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 200d | didiaodeshuaige5 fills | $200M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $17,429 | +$181 +1.0% | 2 |
| 200d |  BigAII | $75M | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | −$26 −2.6% | — |
| 200d |  dafer | $100M | BuyNo44¢ → 0¢ | $3,206 | −$3,206 −100% | 3 |
| 200d | dafer | $100M | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $3,159 | −$1,586 −50% | — |
| 200d | seith | $200M | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,174 | −$20 −1.7% | — |
| 200d | Calculating-Prevalence | $100M | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | −$311 −29% | — |
| 200d | MAkeloo | $75M | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,601 | −$36 −2.2% | — |
| 200d | Trusting-Time-MonthNew account | $100M | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,199 | −$179 −15% | — |
| 200d | bjjkm4 fills | $200M | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $7,352 | +$757 +10% | 2 |
| 200d | Bat-man | $200M | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,558 | −$51 −2.0% | — |
| 200d |  0x12e234487263604af1a794c963830607d1857C4 | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,010 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 200d | batmannnnn | $200M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,241 | +$66 +2.0% | 2 |
| 200d | didiaodeshuaige2 fills | $300M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $12,221 | +$356 +2.9% | 2 |
| 200d | Russon | $300M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,207 | +$13 +0.6% | 2 |
| 200d | xindaa | $300M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,892 | +$11 +0.6% | 2 |
TimeTraveler62,276 shares
mozarttt7,868 shares
mommypig5 shares
kulirner4 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Based's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Based (https://x.com/BasedOneX) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for $500M means the market gives it about 0%.