Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 292d | Gipa | December 31 | SellNo100¢ | $1,477 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 292d | LBZone4 fills | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $27,536 | +$1,267 +4.6% | 20 |
| 298d | LBZone2 fills | December 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,918 | −$90 −3.1% | — |
| 298d | Real-Advertisement | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$21 +1.1% | 20 |
| 298d | RichardLai | December 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | +$22 +1.9% | 20 |
| 305d | lordedward | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,196 | +$13 +0.6% | 20 |
| 310d | -0-2 fills | December 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,725 | −$64 −0.8% | — |
| 311d | nakammo | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$9 +0.9% | 20 |
| 313d | ShowFaker | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,002 | +$26 +1.3% | 20 |
| 313d | -0-12 fills | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $76,285 | +$2,030 +2.7% | 20 |
| 313d | brucemsx | December 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $10,071 | −$200 −2.0% | — |
| 314d | atai | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,052 | +$13 +1.2% | 20 |
| 316d | 0x9caf…89b2 | December 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,170 | −$44 −1.4% | — |
| 316d | 0xfe1c…7a833 fills | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,575 | +$78 +1.0% | 20 |
| 316d | 0xfe1c…7a833 fills | December 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,434 | −$80 −1.3% | — |
| 316d | 0x9caf…89b2 | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,182 | +$32 +1.0% | 20 |
| 317d | oloiydhoad | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,967 | +$33 +1.1% | 20 |
| 317d | macomaco | December 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,111 | −$26 −1.2% | — |
| 318d |  Feishu5 fills | December 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $33,185 | +$792 +2.4% | 20 |
| 338d | po185032 fills | December 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $11,755 | +$294 +2.5% | 20 |
| 345d |  burnny3 fills | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $59,173 | +$2,806 +4.7% | 20 |
| 350d | burnny2 fills | December 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,075 | −$200 −2.8% | — |
| 367d | mnuiqio | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,090 | −$48 −4.4% | — |
| 367d | mnuiqio | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | +$39 +3.5% | 20 |
| 368d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | December 31 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,626 | −$236 −6.5% | — |
| 371d | NeH3 fills | December 31 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $37,579 | −$2,251 −6.0% | — |
| 372d | brucemsx | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$271 +2.7% | 20 |
| 375d | czdy | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,206 | −$130 −4.0% | — |
| 390d | reng599 | December 31 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,302 | −$83 −6.4% | — |
| 394d |  0x547889b207c980f660774D06CD5Ca144377A0142 fills | December 31 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $14,038 | −$1,100 −7.8% | — |
| 395d | toby777777 | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$164 +5.5% | 20 |
| 411d | czdy | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,169 | +$167 +5.3% | 20 |
| 431d | Disguised-Councilman | December 31 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,472 | −$128 −8.7% | — |
| 436d | Disguised-Councilman | December 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,388 | +$104 +7.5% | 20 |
| 439d | taiwaninvasion | December 31 | BuyYes10¢ → 0¢ | $2,021 | −$2,021 −100% | 25 |
| 447d | frostnovae | December 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$247 +9.9% | 20 |
| 451d | xiaojiren | December 31 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,351 | −$150 −11% | — |
| 453d | Anon5566 | December 31 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $5,690 | −$632 −11% | — |
| 461d | Muddy-Yin | December 31 | BuyYes9¢ → 0¢ | $1,216 | −$1,216 −100% | 24 |
| 471d | Wasserhous | December 31 | BuyYes9¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 473d |  noreasapa | June 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 473d | Anon5566 | June 30 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,990 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 477d | czdy | June 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,496 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 478d |  CCC1085 | June 30 | SellNo100¢ | $1,095 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 479d | miamimimi | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,030 | +$177 +8.7% | 20 |
| 479d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | June 30 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,666 | −$144 −3.9% | — |
| 480d | atai | June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,344 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 482d | NeH4 fills | December 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $34,110 | +$3,881 +11% | 20 |
| 483d | LBZone10 fills | June 30 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $107,923 | +$3,259 +3.0% | 20 |
| 485d | reng599 | December 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$198 +9.9% | 20 |
| 485d | reng599 | June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,250 | +$48 +0.9% | 20 |
| 486d |  Oompa-Loompa | June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 486d |  Anjun | June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,002 | +$34 +1.1% | 20 |
| 487d | HuskyRRRRR | June 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | −$18 −1.6% | — |
| 491d | yokojhon1 | June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | +$15 +1.3% | 20 |
| 492d | Anon55662 fills | June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,933 | +$111 +1.4% | 20 |
| 492d | Tianxingjian | June 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,394 | −$54 −1.6% | — |
| 493d | checkRaise-714 | June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$28 +1.4% | 20 |
| 493d | Tianxingjian | June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,400 | +$48 +1.4% | 20 |
| 493d | 0xc92e76095584f19d9c46f7a4ff7f2d918c02a6a1 | June 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,839 | −$30 −1.6% | — |
TungstenTamaki14,832 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 0%.
