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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Blue | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 234d | Hechuan | Red | SellYes>99¢ | $1,002 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 234d | Carrylicious | Red | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 234d | Israellover | Red | SellYes>99¢ | $1,175 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 234d | Trustinghorse | Blue | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,190 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 234d |  The-Joker | Red | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,018 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 234d |  Parz1vaI | Blue | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,048 | +$59 +1.9% | 4 |
| 234d |  DREAMBIG. | Red | BuyYes51¢ → 100¢ | $1,187 | +$1,163 +98% | 4 |
| 235d | Parz1vaI | Red | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | −$223 −22% | — |
bjprolo100 sharesThis market will resolve based on the predominant color of the tie worn by Donald Trump at the 2026 State of the Union address, currently scheduled for February 24, 2026. The color will be determined by the most visually dominant color visible in publicly available photos or videos of the event. For example, for the tie to be considered predominantly blue, its primary color must be a shade of blue, though it may feature other colors as part of a pattern. This tie would count as "Blue": https://i.ytimg.com/vi/20w7J2JAmqw/maxresdefault.jpg The following tie has no distinguishable predominant color, and thus would resolve to "Other". https://www.usatoday.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2025/01/20/USAT/77837111007-xxx-dcmg-105-5190802.jpg If Donald Trump does not wear a tie, or if it is a color not listed among the strike options, or if the event is cancelled or otherwise does not occur by March 31, 2026, the market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Red means the market gives it about 100%.