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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220-239 | 100% | +37 pts | +88 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −10 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −21 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −4 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −1 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 178d | adpo2 fills | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,002 | −$26 −0.3% | — |
| 178d | UKIIDQJ | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,454 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | Papuasus | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,421 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | Cryptan228 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,813 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | Dense-Muscat | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,731 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 178d |  upont | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,713 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | cvbhjxcvxcv | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,007 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 178d |  hidden-james | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,000 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | Regal-Adjective | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,116 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | win-win-win99 | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,993 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d | Wary-Tragedy3 fills | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $14,551 | −$21 −0.1% | — |
| 178d |  Annica13 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $36,835 | +$831 +2.3% | 21 |
| 178d | 6862584 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,383 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | Akvyr | 240-259 | SellNo100¢ | $1,024 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 178d | win-at-all-cost | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,603 | +$16 +1.0% | 20 |
| 178d | 0xe8cf…819e | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,002 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 178d | Annica | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $19,448 | −$19 −0.1% | — |
| 178d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,526 | +$25 +0.2% | 20 |
| 178d | PredictionYogi | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,444 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d | upont | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,278 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d |  520111 | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,541 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d |  Prexpect | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,089 | +$24 +0.2% | 20 |
| 178d | anon.1980.123 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,062 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 178d | onekey092 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,084 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 178d | upont | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,443 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | Vincent44230 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,060 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 178d | onekey09 | 220-239 | BuyYes100¢ | $8,034 | +$40 +0.5% | 20 |
| 178d | cvbhjxcvxcv | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 178d | geraldhew89 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,643 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 178d |  weijizuanqian | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,683 | +$10 +0.6% | 20 |
| 178d | WCWS2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,960 | +$37 +0.7% | 20 |
| 178d | iamcj20252 fills | 240-259 | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,404 | −$363 −15% | — |
| 178d | Gentle-East | 240-259 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,382 | −$40 −2.9% | — |
| 178d |  Elonurmom | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,977 | +$35 +1.2% | 20 |
| 178d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,128 | +$20 +1.8% | 21 |
| 178d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,130 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | hulitest2025 | 220-239 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,094 | −$70 −6.4% | — |
| 179d | morchory | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,094 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | LazyWanker | 220-239 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,450 | −$50 −2.0% | — |
| 179d | Bankrupt-Loser | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,022 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | Repulsive-Hit | 240-259 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,391 | +$23 +1.6% | 21 |
| 179d | Bankrupt-Loser | 220-239 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,386 | +$28 +2.0% | 21 |
| 179d | Official-Impediment | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,001 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | Bankrupt-Loser | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,160 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 179d |  AlmostRich | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,800 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 179d |  Senpaidroz | 220-239 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,365 | −$42 −3.1% | — |
| 179d | 68625842 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $9,482 | +$186 +2.0% | 21 |
| 179d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,662 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | GRILLEDCHEESESANDWICH87 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,702 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | abin8888 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,347 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 179d |  Deepwinner888 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,186 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 179d | venezuelain | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,494 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 179d | Prexpect | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,989 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 179d |  LinaBell🦊 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,331 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 179d | rabbitCo | 200-219 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,114 | −$12 −1.1% | — |
| 179d |  jesterthegoose2 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $3,770 | +$948 +25% | 27 |
| 179d | jesterthegoose4 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,476 | +$124 +0.4% | 20 |
| 179d | GRILLEDCHEESESANDWICH87 | 200-219 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,374 | +$314 +23% | 26 |
| 179d | AlmostRich2 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $8,263 | +$409 +4.9% | 22 |
| 179d | pupupuup2 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $3,939 | +$706 +18% | 25 |
nimikm1,100 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 14 12:00 PM ET to April 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 220-239 means the market gives it about 100%.