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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +4 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 179d | WCWS | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 179d |  Kamenshyk22 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,319 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | nomalmaker | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,338 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | dodca | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | Vincent44230 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,019 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | Dswang | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,820 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | 4ever3. | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,051 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | Medical-Universe | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $14,553 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 179d |  Mr-Lucker | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,098 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | svmt | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,715 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,690 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,097 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | Cryptan228 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,086 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 179d | Jo222 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,983 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 179d |  Senpaidroz | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,100 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 179d |  TukiAdo | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,106 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 180d | bipbipbop | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,873 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 180d | bipbipbop | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,882 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 180d | Dense-Muscat | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,511 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 180d |  Meow12 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,289 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 180d | Gentle-East | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,249 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 180d | MelH | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 180d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,846 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 180d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,343 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 180d | liq22 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,923 | +$70 +1.0% | 20 |
| 180d | win-win-win99 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,951 | +$27 +0.4% | 20 |
| 180d | Separate-Beast3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,756 | +$114 +1.3% | 20 |
| 180d |  weijizuanqian | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,663 | +$20 +1.2% | 20 |
| 180d | Meow12 | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,190 | +$98 +2.3% | 20 |
| 180d | win-at-all-cost2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,671 | +$91 +3.4% | 21 |
| 180d |  yarofxxk | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$31 +3.1% | 21 |
| 180d | yolol2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $7,215 | +$294 +4.1% | 21 |
| 180d | TukiAdo | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | +$68 +6.6% | 22 |
| 180d | TukiAdo2 fills | 40-64 | SellYes66¢ → 100¢ | $3,718 | −$1,949 −52% | — |
| 180d | TukiAdo | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,139 | +$35 +3.0% | 21 |
| 180d | Pungent-Almanac | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 180d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | +$23 +2.1% | 21 |
| 180d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,637 | +$52 +3.2% | 21 |
| 180d |  Boss72 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,639 | +$55 +0.3% | 20 |
| 180d | yolol2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $7,966 | +$357 +4.5% | 21 |
| 180d |  upont | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,203 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 180d | Yanncll | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,017 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 180d | 0x9429…c151 | 65-89 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,594 | −$105 −6.6% | — |
| 180d | dfggy | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,891 | +$100 +5.3% | 21 |
| 180d |  Mei-ji | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,188 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 180d | 8848meters | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,153 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 180d | JIUSHENzhou | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,335 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 180d | iamcj2025 | 65-89 | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $4,050 | −$635 −16% | — |
| 180d | WCWS | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,978 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
| 180d | yip88 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,434 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 180d | yip88 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,435 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 180d | Cryptan228 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 180d | 4ever3. | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,090 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 180d | Repulsive-Hit | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,393 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 180d |  AlmostRich | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,119 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 180d | Bankrupt-Loser | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,093 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 180d |  Annica | 40-64 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,991 | +$332 +11% | 23 |
| 180d | pupupuup2 fills | <40 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,626 | −$320 −5.7% | — |
| 180d |  Gustav4 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,822 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 180d | pupupuup4 fills | <40 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $8,457 | +$856 +10% | 22 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 18 12:00 PM ET to April 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.