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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220-239 | 100% | +52 pts | +83 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −4 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −37 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −21 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −7 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −2 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 171d | SLG0072 fills | 260-279 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,059 | −$23 −1.1% | — |
| 172d | dodca | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 172d |  adencheboy | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | What-Exchange-Builder-04 | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,003 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Icannotwin | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,500 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 172d |  hidden-james | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,002 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Dense-Muscat | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,235 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Koutras | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,355 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Muzamilhussain | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,467 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Outrageous-Butter | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,514 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | win-win-win99 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d |  Boss73 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $36,292 | +$56 +0.2% | 20 |
| 172d | Boss7 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $14,922 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 172d |  578867986796 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,459 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d | French-Saint | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,604 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 172d |  Prexpect | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $25,509 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d | Reminiscence0w0 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,483 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 172d |  Deepwinner888 | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,036 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 172d | geraldhew89 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,964 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 172d |  520111 | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,992 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 172d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,564 | +$405 +8.9% | 22 |
| 172d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,241 | +$90 +1.1% | 20 |
| 172d | onekey09 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,516 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 172d | BinaryBaron3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,218 | +$34 +0.5% | 20 |
| 172d | geraldhew89 | 240-259 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,500 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 172d | geraldhew89 | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,100 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 172d |  LinaBell🦊 | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,019 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
| 172d | BinaryBaron | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,221 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 172d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf9 | 240-259 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,337 | −$16 −1.2% | — |
| 172d | Guray | 240-259 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | −$13 −1.1% | — |
| 172d | nomalmaker | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,185 | +$17 +0.8% | 20 |
| 172d | nomalmaker | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,198 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Outrageous-Butter | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,499 | +$17 +1.1% | 20 |
| 172d | Repulsive-Hit | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,508 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Siziriv | 240-259 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,369 | +$73 +3.1% | 21 |
| 172d |  TweetPulse.Live2 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,698 | +$70 +2.6% | 21 |
| 172d | WCWS | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,997 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Guray | 240-259 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$85 +4.3% | 21 |
| 172d | AlexPro2 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $5,214 | +$949 +18% | 24 |
| 172d | fenghuangchuangqi | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d | Outrageous-Butter | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,706 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 172d | WCWS2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,228 | +$272 +8.4% | 23 |
| 172d |  y111m11 | 220-239 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,887 | +$164 +8.7% | 23 |
| 172d | Dense-Muscat | 240-259 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$239 +8.0% | 22 |
| 172d | PredictionYogi | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,312 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 172d | Boss72 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,362 | +$59 +0.3% | 20 |
| 172d | Dense-Muscat | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,068 | −$11 −0.4% | — |
| 172d | Mobilc | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 172d | carboyant | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,926 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 172d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,310 | +$22 +0.3% | 20 |
| 172d | carboyant | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,935 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Boss77 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $37,193 | +$115 +0.3% | 20 |
| 172d | nomalmaker | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,183 | +$17 +0.5% | 20 |
| 172d | svmt | 220-239 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$337 +17% | 25 |
| 172d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf9 | 260-279 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,148 | −$17 −1.4% | — |
| 172d | Guray | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,059 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | yolol3 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,188 | +$288 +6.9% | 21 |
| 172d | WCWS | 260-279 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,943 | +$51 +1.7% | 21 |
| 172d | geraldhew89 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,822 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 172d | gertrudeee | 220-239 | SellYes73¢ → 100¢ | $1,159 | −$419 −36% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 21 12:00 PM ET to April 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 220-239 means the market gives it about 100%.
