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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 100% | +39 pts | +84 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | +50 pts | +50 pts | — · >99¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −25 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −20 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −2 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 168d |  Panopticon007 | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,610 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | niceShare | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,442 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | 0xbea8…36ef2 fills | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,110 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | 0x35a2…8a5e | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,355 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | Flaky-Bidding | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,619 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 168d |  Elonurmom | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $13,492 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | Kairos1992 | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,067 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | Muzamilhussain | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,840 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | Dense-Muscat | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,508 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | Outrageous-Butter | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,583 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 168d |  PredictionYogi | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | IVNBRENESS1111 | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,388 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 168d |  KARMASUR | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,428 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 168d |  Deepwinner888 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,114 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 168d |  Prexpect2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,892 | +$31 +0.1% | 20 |
| 168d | Intelligent-Tax | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,644 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | onekey02 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,963 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 168d | ylnopU | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,018 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 168d | PredictionYogi | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,981 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 168d |  juhuaguan | 180-199 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,860 | −$23 −1.2% | — |
| 168d | Degenerate-Dude | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,267 | +$33 +1.0% | 20 |
| 168d | froku | 180-199 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,066 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 168d | anon.1980.123 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,628 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | Prexpect | 180-199 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,487 | −$14 −0.9% | — |
| 168d | bipbipbop3 fills | 180-199 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $3,856 | −$628 −16% | — |
| 168d | Intelligent-Tax | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 168d | WCWS2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,912 | +$49 +1.7% | 21 |
| 168d |  upont2 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,268 | +$36 +1.1% | 20 |
| 168d | ylnopU | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$23 +1.1% | 20 |
| 168d | yuan90641101 | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,391 | +$17 +1.2% | 20 |
| 168d | PredictionYogi | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,969 | +$32 +1.6% | 21 |
| 168d | BinaryBaron | 200-219 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,549 | +$52 +2.0% | 21 |
| 168d | BinaryBaron | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,544 | +$32 +2.0% | 21 |
| 168d |  y111m11 | 180-199 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,261 | +$39 +3.1% | 21 |
| 169d | Repulsive-Hit | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,810 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | onekey022 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $74,865 | +$75 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | MelH | 180-199 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,635 | +$86 +5.3% | 22 |
| 169d | marbas | 180-199 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,023 | −$69 −6.7% | — |
| 169d | Dense-Muscat | 200-219 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,300 | +$212 +6.4% | 22 |
| 169d |  triple-purple | 180-199 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,377 | +$142 +10% | 23 |
| 169d |  wuhengzhijian | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,999 | +$20 +0.4% | 20 |
| 169d | Elonurmom2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,033 | +$353 +12% | 23 |
| 169d | bipbipbop4 fills | 220-239 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,927 | −$155 −1.6% | — |
| 169d | bipbipbop2 fills | 200-219 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,546 | −$521 −20% | — |
| 169d | 0x35a2…8a5e | 220-239 | BuyNo100¢ | $3,980 | +$20 +0.5% | 20 |
| 169d | Repulsive-Hit | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 |
| 169d | Outrageous-Butter | 200-219 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | +$89 +8.7% | 22 |
| 169d |  Thailand-Playboy | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,315 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | upont | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,945 | +$55 +1.1% | 20 |
| 169d | OnlySafeBets2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $22,747 | +$253 +1.1% | 20 |
| 169d | upont | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,437 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d | Satoshimania | 180-199 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,166 | +$147 +13% | 23 |
| 169d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,398 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d | Roguer | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d | xxtgsy | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,578 | +$72 +1.3% | 20 |
| 169d | onekey02 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,986 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | Thailand-Playboy | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,697 | −$11 −0.2% | — |
| 169d | Ronke | 180-199 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,005 | −$203 −20% | — |
| 169d | GJLCS | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,124 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
JWoozy13 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 24 12:00 PM ET to May 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-199 means the market gives it about 100%.