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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +28 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −23 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 172d | anon.1980.123 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,433 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Dotachris | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,250 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Dense-Muscat | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,143 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Flaky-Bidding | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,109 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | Outrageous-Butter | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,525 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 172d |  578867986796 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,461 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d | TTALP | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,171 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d | onekey09 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,968 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d | KKTTFENG | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,453 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d |  kejsi | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,956 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | xaeroqkAtProtonMe2 fills | 40-64 | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $3,553 | −$2,640 −74% | — |
| 172d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,255 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 172d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,658 | +$37 +0.6% | 20 |
| 172d |  LaPoutreDu06 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,015 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 172d |  AlmostRich | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,486 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 172d |  jesterthegoose3 fills | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $27,880 | +$419 +1.5% | 20 |
| 172d | 1111 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,993 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 172d |  Deepwinner888 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,583 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d |  520111 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,366 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 172d | ddolsw123r | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,993 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 172d | jesterthegoose3 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $37,710 | +$1,656 +4.4% | 21 |
| 172d | Unequaled-Hatbox | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,950 | +$29 +1.5% | 21 |
| 172d |  LinaBell🦊 | <40 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $13,981 | +$421 +3.0% | 21 |
| 172d | venezuelain | <40 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,868 | +$120 +3.1% | 21 |
| 172d | tukki | <40 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,988 | +$124 +3.1% | 21 |
| 172d | AlmostRich | <40 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,173 | +$284 +5.5% | 22 |
| 172d | kejsi | <40 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $8,239 | +$692 +8.4% | 23 |
| 172d |  FatFrumos | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,488 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 172d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,078 | +$27 +0.3% | 20 |
| 172d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,889 | +$116 +1.2% | 21 |
| 172d | sunqibin | <40 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,568 | +$392 +25% | 27 |
| 172d | Guray | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,174 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 173d | dudukos | <40 | SellYes72¢ → 0¢ | $1,061 | +$1,061 +100% | — |
| 173d | Regal-Adjective | <40 | SellYes70¢ → 0¢ | $1,070 | +$1,070 +100% | — |
| 173d |  Boss73 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,309 | +$50 +0.9% | 20 |
| 173d | 0x21d3…8d3f | 40-64 | BuyNo63¢ → 0¢ | $1,134 | −$1,134 −100% | 30 |
| 173d | rusgreat2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,245 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 173d | thcdmz | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,685 | +$22 +0.8% | 20 |
| 173d | onekey09 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,203 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 173d |  XY99778 | <40 | SellNo51¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | −$1,023 −97% | — |
| 173d |  TukiAdo | <40 | BuyYes44¢ → 0¢ | $1,111 | −$1,111 −100% | 30 |
| 173d |  tupac8 | 40-64 | BuyNo39¢ → 0¢ | $1,159 | −$1,159 −100% | 30 |
| 173d | tupac8 | <40 | BuyYes43¢ → 0¢ | $2,606 | −$2,606 −100% | 31 |
| 173d | Feminine-Crepe | <40 | BuyYes33¢ → 0¢ | $1,106 | −$1,106 −100% | 30 |
| 173d | yolol | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,345 | +$73 +3.1% | 21 |
| 173d | tenorplum | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | +$41 +4.1% | 21 |
| 173d | Tagan1 | 40-64 | SellYes64¢ → 100¢ | $1,429 | −$792 −55% | — |
| 173d | ManCangGangGanDaDanGan4 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $12,151 | +$850 +7.0% | 22 |
| 173d | Dense-Muscat | 65-89 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,986 | +$152 +5.1% | 22 |
| 173d | xxtgsy | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,611 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 173d | Boss7 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,224 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 173d | 0x21d3…8d3f | 65-89 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,052 | −$82 −7.8% | — |
| 173d |  C78123 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,999 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 173d | Flaky-Bidding | 65-89 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,795 | +$305 +5.3% | 21 |
| 173d | TomCryptoDefi2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,810 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 173d | WCWS | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,737 | +$239 +6.4% | 22 |
| 173d | Feminine-Crepe | 65-89 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,201 | −$103 −8.6% | — |
| 173d |  upont | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,235 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 173d | jiminimenez | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,489 | +$112 +7.5% | 22 |
| 173d | linlang | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,480 | +$18 +0.4% | 20 |
A1myFirst127 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 25 12:00 PM ET to April 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.