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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150–174 | 100% | +25 pts | +91 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <100 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100–124 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 125–149 | 0% | −19 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 175–199 | 0% | −23 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200–224 | 0% | −2 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 225–249 | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 250–274 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 275–299 | 0% | — | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300–324 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325–349 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350–374 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375–399 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400+ | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 532d | alex4127 | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,571 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 532d | Cryptosputnik | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $17,982 | −$18 −0.1% | — |
| 533d | SirDragon | 175–199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,313 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 533d | allin88 | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,327 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 533d |  PredictionYogi | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,884 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 533d | Mrhack210291 | 200–224 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,006 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 533d |  TheUnconsiousStatistician | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,732 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 533d |  LookBehindYou | 175–199 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,705 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 533d | toosmartfortrap | 150–174 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,426 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 533d |  Gustav42 fills | 150–174 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,181 | +$219 +5.2% | 22 |
| 533d | cipherpilot | 175–199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,822 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 533d | Gustav4 | 175–199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,360 | +$15 +1.1% | 20 |
| 533d |  Prexpect | 150–174 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,051 | +$63 +3.1% | 20 |
| 533d |  imp | 150–174 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,940 | +$60 +3.1% | 20 |
| 533d | 0xtrading | 175–199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,855 | +$38 +2.0% | 20 |
| 533d |  Gooddfella2 fills | 150–174 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $3,055 | +$465 +15% | 24 |
| 533d | allin88 | 150–174 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,276 | +$52 +4.1% | 20 |
| 533d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 150–174 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,481 | +$260 +10% | 20 |
| 533d | LookBehindYou | 175–199 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$710 +18% | 20 |
| 533d |  ShatteredHalo2 fills | 150–174 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $6,441 | +$965 +15% | 20 |
| 533d | noovd | 150–174 | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,125 | +$580 +52% | 20 |
| 533d | jeonghunp | 150–174 | BuyNo38¢ → 0¢ | $1,021 | −$1,021 −100% | 20 |
| 533d | Gooddfella | 150–174 | SellYes63¢ → 100¢ | $1,538 | −$893 −58% | — |
| 533d | ShatteredHalo | 150–174 | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $2,910 | −$1,327 −46% | — |
| 533d | ydhzjsts | 175–199 | SellNo53¢ → 100¢ | $1,581 | −$1,415 −90% | — |
| 533d | Gustav4 | 150–174 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,347 | −$153 −11% | — |
| 533d | jeonghunp2 fills | 175–199 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,852 | +$241 +8.4% | 20 |
| 533d | ydhzjsts | 175–199 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,750 | +$246 +9.0% | 20 |
| 533d | cigarettes | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,096 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 533d | Thanatos17 | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,529 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 533d | Thanatos17 | 325–349 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,128 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 533d | S4AI | 125–149 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,059 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 533d | imp | 200–224 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,325 | −$30 −2.2% | — |
| 533d |  ChocolateSTAR | 125–149 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,806 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 533d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 125–149 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,121 | +$32 +0.8% | 20 |
| 533d | FoldingNuts2723 fills | 125–149 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,886 | +$41 +0.6% | 20 |
| 533d |  MettaWorldPeace00 | 275–299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,049 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 534d | astromage | 250–274 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,650 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 534d | ethan123 | 200–224 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$24 +1.6% | 20 |
| 534d | Pel | 175–199 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,759 | +$356 +13% | 22 |
| 534d | ljkji | 275–299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,467 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 534d | ljkji | 275–299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,388 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 534d |  CallmeEuphoria | 400+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,022 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 534d | nonkenny90 | 200–224 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,937 | +$63 +1.6% | 20 |
| 534d |  lolboy4D | 150–174 | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $2,141 | +$1,055 +49% | 25 |
| 534d | ChocolateSTAR | 125–149 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,415 | +$391 +28% | 24 |
| 534d | imp | 200–224 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,601 | +$21 +1.3% | 20 |
| 534d |  Babar1952 | 150–174 | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,258 | +$882 +70% | 25 |
| 534d | edc-10 | 325–349 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,571 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 534d | nonkenny902 fills | 225–249 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,659 | +$41 +1.1% | 20 |
| 534d | FoldingNuts2722 fills | 100–124 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,913 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
| 534d |  Galamaddison | 375–399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,297 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 535d |  Trader556 | 400+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,001 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 535d | 0rocky007 | 100–124 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,183 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 535d |  NewPower | 375–399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 535d |  Mortician2 fills | 100–124 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,011 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 535d | remember | 400+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,231 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 535d | ElonSpam | 100–124 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,234 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 535d |  Sdeser83848 | 400+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,030 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 535d |  Kokodjango | 400+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,118 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between April 25, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and May 2, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 150–174 means the market gives it about 100%.